Stock Market Archives - Page 22 of 29

US/China Trade War Impact on Stock Market

Posted on March 25, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global stock market has lost the short term growth momentum with new variable of potential US/China trade war impact on stock market, triggered by Trump latest political economy move.

The conditions for uptrend stock momentum is

US S&P500 > 2700 points

– now 2588 points, nearly break below 2581 points critical short term support

US Dow Jones Index > 25000 points

– now 23533 points, breaking below 23860 points critical short term support

US contributes to more than 50% stock value, therefore monitoring of S&P500 or Dow Jones Index help to understand the health condition of global stock market. After the 10% global stock market correction in Feb 2018 due to fear of higher US government bond yield, US stock market was recovering well above the 2 conditions above but breaking down recently due to the fear of political clashing between the Top 2 global economy, US and China.

Since the current high optimism market is more suitable for short term trading, it is important to follow the short term trend (buy when it is uptrend, sell/short when it is downtrend, wait/hold/do nothing when it is sideways) with consideration of support and resistance.

For a short term trader, safer approach is to exit first, enter again only after confirmation of short term uptrend. For an investor with higher risk tolerance level, need to monitor the level of support (aligned with own personalities) for plan for possible exit.

Political economy has added to the complexity of high optimism stock market. Volatility is getting higher, currently above critical level of 24, if sustainable above this level for more than 1 month, it will be a danger signal.

Remember global stock market is walking on a layer of thin ice now. Feel free to drop by Dr Tee next free investment course to understand the market outlook with US/China trader war impact on stock market (World, US, Singapore, China, Hong Kong).

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: trade war, Trade War Impact on Stock

US Interest Rate Hike

Posted on March 22, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

As expected, confirmed US interest rate hike to 1.5-1.75%. It is hard to stop the wheel of uptrend macroeconomy, higher GDP, lower unemployment rate, etc. This will lead the global economy and stock market towards positive direction.

However, due to high optimism stock market, any unexpected negative political action or financial incident could trigger the next global financial crisis which could stop the wheel of growing economy. Market correction (eg. threat of trade war, worry of interest rate hike or surging bond yield, etc) is actually healthy as it helps to prolong the bull run in stock market.

US stock market has been stagnant after the 10% correction in Feb 2018, S&P500 is still supported above 2700 points, bull market is still intact but short term momentum is slowed down.

US 10 years bond yield is near to 3%, US interest rate hike has another 1-2 year to catch up with similar level as bond yield. Global stock market is walking on a layer of thin ice, mainly suitable for short term trading (who may consider to buy), not for long term investor (except planning for exit).

A smart investor or trader would learn to adopt the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting) aligning to own personality and current market condition. Sign up for free stock investment course by Dr Tee to learn 10 strategies of stock trading and investing (including impact of US interest rate hike and other indicators).

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: US Interest Rate Hike

Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion

Posted on March 12, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Share price is a 3-dimensional movement, governed by Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion:

Optimism = PA = TA – FA, [gap between price and value]
TA = FA + PA
z = f (FA, PA), function of FA and PA

where PA = Personal Analysis, TA = Technical Analysis, FA = Fundamental Analysis

It means share price (TA) which is the vertical Z-axis, is a function of X-axis which is business Fundamental Analysis (FA: strong or weak) and Y-axis (depth direction of roller coaster) which is market emotions with Personal Analysis (PA: greed or fear). Both the FA and PA could contribute to up and down in share prices (TA), main contributors to the Law of Stock Market Motion.

Ein55 Law of Stock Market Motion simply means that both market emotions and macroeconomy / business strength contribute to movement in stock market. Based on probability, a company which has consistent good performance in business will likely to perform well in stock prices over a longer term. Similarly, when there is an unexpected bad news or unpredictable outcome which results in stock market fear, the share price is likely to fall down. In the real world of stock market, both fundamental (FA) and emotions (PA) will be combined to form an unique condition of stock market on different day, therefore creating different share prices each day, hour or even minute.

When we buy a stock at low optimism, it means we buy when the gap between share price and value is the large, an undervalue stock with price below value. When we sell a stock at high optimism, it means the share price is much more than value, an overpriced stock.

Learn the Law of Stock Market Motion from Dr Tee FREE stock investment course to understand how the share prices could move up and down in the stock market.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Optimism, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis Tagged: Law of Stock Market

Active Income from Job vs. Passive Income from Investment

Posted on March 11, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

An active income from job would stop after one’s retirement but a passive income from investment could continue with minimal monitoring required, eg. buying a portfolio of giant stocks or even property at low optimism price during the market crisis, holding long term or even a life time beyond retirement.

The beauty of investment (stocks, properties, commodities, forex, bonds, etc) is to provide an alternative source of passive income from investment to us, with little effort put in, in additional to own active income from professional job (engineer, teacher, accountant, admin staff, salesman, etc). Ideally, a combination of both active income from job and passive income from investment would provide a more stable dual engines of growth for our financial needs, supporting the growth of a meaningful life with lower risk.

We don’t have to be excellent in all areas of life. However, it could be risky to depend on only 1 professional job or skill after investing 16-20 years of time investment (primary school, secondary school, tertiary school) in mainstream school. This is called concentration risk for income. What if there is a drastic change in industry needs, the job becomes obsolete in the next 1-2 decades? Then, the time investment would be wasted and family could be at risk as the active income from job may not be sustainable anymore.

Good habits in life leads to higher probability of success in life as well. If one likes to study, chances of doing well in academic is high. If one practices an unique skill with years of hardwork, likely the active income will be higher with salary increment or better business. If one pays attention to business fundamentals, the confidence of buying and holding a good stock for capital gains and passive income from investment will be strong. If one is sensitive to trends and changes in the market, will be more likely to be a good trader in stocks.

Initiative the positive habits in life for active income from job and passive income from investment. Start the second engine of passive income from investment, learning from high quality free investment courses (Optimism Strategies + Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis + Personal Analysis) from Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: passive income, Passive Income from Investment

Stock Investing Strategy with Top 10 Richest Investors and Businessmen

Posted on March 7, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Jeff Bezos of Amazon is No 1 of Top 10 Richest Investors and Businessmen in the world as of Mar 2018. It is not just a competition of individual wealth. It is relative performance of their stocks in the current stock market, implying Amazon (Jeff Bezos) outperforms Microsoft (Bill Gates) in stocks.

See the list of Top 10 Richest Investors in the world, in Asia or even in Singapore, most of these richest persons have a successful business empire, supported by profitable business (Level 1) in a growing sector (Level 2) of a major economy (Level 3) with global influence (Level 4).

Since the contribution of stock performance is key to wealth of individual, this relative ranking of Top 10 Richest Investors could change again every year, depending on their stock prices and business performance. Only those businesses have sustainable growth could dominate the stock market and Top 10 Richest Investors ranking for a long term.

We don’t have to envy of the wealth of Top 10 Richest Investors but we could consider share their wealth by joining as a minority business partner, simply buy the stocks of these giant businesses (Amazon, Microsoft, Berkshire, Facebook, Google, etc) at the right time. Although we may not be able to be the same in terms of absolute wealth as it requires accumulation of money over a long term, it is possible to have similar relative growth in wealth as Top 10 Richest Investors in the world if we could own their stocks.

A short term trader could buy high sell higher, these giant stocks of Top 10 Richest Investors (Amazon, Microsoft, Berkshire, Facebook, Google, etc) likely have strong momentum to grow in share prices further but a smart trader would know when to take profits as the optimism of stock could be on high side. On the other hand, a long term investor may wait patiently for global financial crisis to buy these profitable businesses with share prices falling more than 50%, but the business is still making money each day even during the market fear driven crisis, having tremendous upside for potential capital gains by holding to the stocks.

Learn further from Dr Tee free investment courses to share the profits of these Top 10 Richest Investors in the World, Asia and Singapore (various case studies with strategies will be discussed) through trading or investing in their stocks at the right time, aligning to own unique personalities.

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Value Investing Tagged: Top 10 Richest Investors

Technology Stock Bubble V2.0

Posted on March 5, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Creative Technology (SGX: C76) at one time, was the most expensive stock in Singapore before year 2000 dot com bubble with over $60 per share. After the Sound Blaster technology faded way over the last 2 decades, share price dropped to $1 due to declining earning.

Recently there is an exciting new Super X-Fi technology introduced, potentially could be a reborn for Creative. As a result, share price soars to over $8 currently from low of $1 in just 1 week. Although this is a speculation of new technology which may potentially save the company (similar to the case of Hi-P, nearly bankrupt at one time, now share prices go up with good earning in the last few years), it may not be wise to short at Creative or any technology stock with strong uptrend, despite it is not yet supported by real earning yet.

Stock market is forward looking, besides looking at past results, the outlook for future products or services can be an important consideration. Creative has a good chance of getting positive cash flow and earning from year 2018 if this new product of Super X-Fi could be as attractive as the Sound Blaster 20 years ago. Creative has been losing less money each year over the last decade, therefore the recent exciting news brings back the old memory of Creative over $60 per share.

Another technology stock, AEM (SGX: AWX) share price goes up 30 times from $0.20 to over $6 since year 2015 after the turn around of business from losing to earning since 2015, riding the bullish economy wave. There are more technology stocks which are driven and supported by good earning in the last few years, eg. Venture, Micro-mechanics, Hi-P, etc.

Technology stocks are benefiting from the current global technology stock bubble V2.0 (version 1.0 was in year 2000), any significant positive news in business would become a driver for stock traders to buy high sell higher until the next global financial crisis. Technology stocks may be considered for short term trading but may not be suitable for long term investing as the business may not be sustainable after the economy becomes bearish one day. Align the strategies of technology stock bubble to one’s unique personality.

Learn from Dr Tee on riding the technology stock bubble.

Filed Under: Stock Market, Trading Tagged: dot com bubble, technology stock, technology stock bubble

Riding the Dark Horse Stock with Economy Wagon

Posted on March 4, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Stock with Economy

US job market has improved further, jobless claim as of Feb 2018 is the lowest over the past 50 years, implying more Americans have jobs, having salaries monthly, therefore stronger spending power which would help the bullish US economy to grow further. Currently it is employee market, the company may need to pay higher salary to keep the staff. The bullish No 1 economy (US) would help the rest of the world stock with economy to grow together.

The corporate tax reduction by Trump from 35% to 21% has helped the companies to achieve higher earning by saving of 40% tax. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway book value has gone up tremendously by $65 Billions in year 2017, about $36 Billions is from company business, remaining $29 Billions from the recent tax reform. It means for every $2 value gained by Warren Buffett in year 2017, $1 is from the business, another $1 is contributed by Trump through the tax reduction. This is not limited to Warren Buffett company. This is applied to entire US companies, therefore the hidden stimulus plan is massive.

The impact would be tremendous over the next few years, may result in overheated economy and bullish stock market with over-spending, higher inflation, therefore higher interest rate. The recent global stock market correction is healthy, bringing the stock market (price) closer to economy (value). If the wild horse of stock is not tamed, sooner or later it would fall off the cliff (black swan) or tripped over a rock (crisis), hurting the master (economy) and global investors and traders.

It is fine to ride the horse with economy wagon, up the hill of stock market. The rider (stock trader) has to monitor the emotions of horses (especially for unpredictable dark horses, stock which perform inconsistently) as upside will become when running too fast for too long. If the horse could rest from time to time, having enough food (supplied by master through stable economy), the journey of bullish stock market could be longer. Learn how to manage the stock with economy.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged: economy, job market, stock with economy, US Market

Leveraging on Stock Market Greed and Fear

Posted on March 1, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Good news continues to be bad news, affected by stock market greed and fear. Stock market is forward looking, usually moving ahead of economy. When economy is strong, stock investors forecast on next moves such as further interest hikes, therefore cautious in each move from now.

If there are 4 times of 0.25% interest rate hike = 1% increment in the next 1 year, the US interest rate would be 1.5 + 1 = 2.5%, US treasury bond yield would exceed 3%. This implies that the next 1 year would be very exciting for both stock traders and investors if they know how to position based on their personalities against the stock market greed and fear.

1) Stock Traders – Leveraging on Stock Market Greed

In the last phase of bull run, mixed of worriness and excitement, stock market may achieve an euphoric stage before ending the episode of a decade long market cycle. This is a high chance for stock traders to make some quick profits but only those who knows how to exit could keep the profits, otherwise may lose more than the earlier earning.

2) Stock Investors – Leveraging on Stock Market Fear

After the investment party (rally) is over, while waiting for global government to clean up the mess, stock market would fall significantly, resulting in the global financial crisis. The black swan would help smart investors to buy the desired global giant stocks with more than 50% discount, which would translate to tremendous capital gains in future.

A smart trader or investor would leverage the right emotion against the stock market greed and fear, creating opportunity of winning. Learn how to align your personality to profit from the stocks market greed and fear, register for free investment course by Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: stock market greed and fear

Global Bank Stocks Investing Strategies

Posted on February 27, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

3 major local bank stocks in Singapore: DBS Bank (SGX: D05), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11) have already achieved historical high peak prices, supported by the bullish global economy. With the rising bank interest rate, Net Interest Margin (NIM) would be larger, banks would have higher profits from this traditional business, not to mention other divisions such as credit card, insurance, wealth management would also make more profits.

3 major banks in Singapore contribute to about 30% of STI stock index. Trend of STI does not reflect all the sectors in Singapore, it is important for trader and investor to study the respective sector index, instead of using STI alone to compare with individual Level 1 stock.

Bank stocks can be multi-role players in an investment dream team, can be a defender (passive income generation) or can be a striker (short term trading for quick capital gains). Currently Ein55 coaching students (Jan-May 2018 batch) are working on a special project on global bank stocks, shortlisting 28 excellent bank stocks from over 500 good bank stocks globally. Under the guidance of Mentors Isabel & Chye Tin, The students will use the next few months to study the financial reports in details with bank stocks unique performance indicators, choosing the best bank stocks for various categories of investing from these 28 excellent bank stocks:

– Growth stock (mainly capital gains),

– Defensive stock (low risk, life time investing),

– Defender stock (investing for income with dividend)

– Midfielder stock (capital gains + dividend)

– Striker stock (cyclic / momentum trading for short term capital gains)

In Ein55 coaching this week, we have reviewed several short term global & local momentum stocks with potential, just nice riding this recovery wave. The Level 1 individual stocks are aligned with Level 3 global stock market performance: corrected by about 10%, hitting low optimism for short term, then recovering well above intermediate support. A nice entry signal for short term trader after breaking the intermediate price resistance.

The last few weeks of 10% correction of global stock market is an alarm, after the recovery, when it is forming twin peaks (double top) or head & shoulder next time at high optimism, the risk is even higher. Remember we are walking on layer of thin ice now, safer to position as a short term trader but having investor mindset (eg. considering only giant stocks). In short, be a short term investor = Buy stock as an investor + buy/sell as a short term trader.

For general public, you may start learning how to invest in global bank stocks and other blue chip stocks through free 4 hours investment courses by Dr Tee, sign up today.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Trading Tagged: bank stock, dbs, ocbc, uob

Investing Strategies for Singapore Telco Stocks

Posted on February 21, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

After joining of No 4 Telco Player, TPG, the Singapore Telco stocks have been bearish in the last few years, with share price correction ranging from about 20% to 50%. Here is a quick summary based on current share prices:

Telco Stocks Optimism Dividend Yield

——————————————————————-

Singtel (SGX: Z74) 29% 4.9%

Starhub (SGX: CC3) 20% 7.1%

M1 (SGX: B2F) 2% 6.4%

TPG (AX: TPM) 17% 1.6%

TPG is a growing Telco stock in Australia, sharing the limited market share of saturated sector of telco stocks in Singapore. Both Starhub and M1 are affected more as the business depends on local Telco, while Singtel is relatively more stable as its business depends on both local and regional Asia Pacific market. M1 is severely affected with share price dropped by more than 50% but the company is still profitable, earning drops by only 25% over the last few years. It shows that Telco stocks in Singapore are over-corrected, initially was driven by news, later by weaker fundamental for Starhub & M1, then driven by the market fear of huge fall in share prices.

As a result, Optimism for Singapore Telco stocks are low, especially for Starhub and M1 which are <25% Optimism. Telco is usually a defensive business, after getting the limited Telco licence issued by government (oligopoly business with limited competitors), investing in infrastructure for Telco, offering services with reasonable prices, the return will be relatively stable with positive monthly cash flow. The disturbance of TPG is just a one-time correction, when the market share is redistributed among the 4 local Telco stocks, all the 4 companies will find their own anchor point in share prices and business earning.

As an investor, there are 2 Investing Strategies for Singapore Telco Stocks

1) Investing for Passive Income (Buy & Hold)

– Stable dividend payment for long term investing

2) Investing for Capital Gains (Buy Low Sell High)

– Buy at discounted price (eg <25% Optimism), selling at bonus price (eg >75% Optimism)

For Passive Income Strategy, Singtel barely fulfills the criteria with 4.9% dividend yield with support of a stable local and regional business, strong sponsor of major shareholder Temasek. The 4.9% dividend yield is comparable with some strong REITs, better than local bank stocks, much higher than 2% return of Singapore Saving Bonds or 1% bank interest rate. A better way of investing for income is to consider Singtel or other dividend stocks at low optimism to maximize the dividend yield, having the potential for capital gains at the same time. An investor also has the choice to consider regional and global Telco stocks which are growing, instead of depending on saturated Singapore Telco business.

However, in the short term, since the Telco stocks are still bearish, it is possible for Telco stocks to have capital loss more than 5% when share prices drops further. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the objective: investing for long term (dividend / capital gains) or trading for medium / short terms. A stock for long term investing may not be suitable for short term trading.

For Capital Gains strategy, both Starhub and M1 fulfill the criteria with Optimism < 25%. In the short term, M1 has better price support than Starhub. Choices of Starhub and M1 should not base on dividend yield of 6-7% because the high yield is due to price drops, not due to earning or dividend growth. Since global stock market is over 80% Optimism, despite Starhub and M1 are at low optimism, the positioning is mainly based on trading to buy low sell high for short to medium terms. The signal for entry depends on the recovery of short term stock prices and business performance. If not, there is a risk of capture the falling knife.

There are many ways to make money in Singapore Telco stocks and global blue chip stocks, learn further from Dr Tee.

Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: m1, singtel, starhub, telco stocks

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