Watching NASDAQ to 10000 Points (旁观者迷)

NASDAQ 10000 Points US Stock Market

10000 points tonight is an important milestone for Nasdaq (mainly technology stocks) as in Year 2000 Dotcom Bubble, it also fell down from “new” peak of 5000 points to about 1/3 of value. After 20 years later, the key difference is this time the driver is V-shape recovery after over 30% major correction which shows the power of “unlimited QE”.

US is more suitable for shorter term trading, especially momentum trading with support of greedy mass market. Trend-following may be required for some traders as optimism is back to high level for both NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets in US. Global stock markets (STI, KLCI, HSI, SSEC, DAX, etc) also recover well but not as bullish as US.

It may be hard to compare Apple (eg. US stock market) with Orange (eg. Asian stock market) but they are still connected as both are fruits (global stock market), therefore when demand for Apple is higher, likely demand for Orange may be higher as well.

At the same time, within each fruit, an investor should look for better Apple or better Orange as it may be confusing to apply the Orange criteria (eg. sweatness) on selection of Apple (eg. crunchy).

In short, you don’t have to like Apple or Orange but need to ensure their prices would be higher in future based on the timeframe of your interest.

Trading may not be suitable for everyone. Those who prefer to buy and forget may be more suitable for investing. There are a few who could invest and trade at the same time but applying 2 different strategies, even if the stock is the same.

When there is a reversal (eg. bear to bull), some would be happy (those who take actions to buy), some may feel sad (those who wait but now uncertain whether decision is right).

In fact, there is no need to worry as there is no right nor wrong in stock market. A trader or investor needs to have a trading plan or investing strategy as an “anchor” to position oneself (aligned with own personality), else will be drifted each day by the wave of stock market, confused with up or down until giddy, may make a “wrong” decision by following others who shout louder.

Covid-19 conditions (both # daily infected cases and death cases) are getting much better for major economies (US, China, Japan, Europe) and also in Singapore. If you follow Dr Tee articles and video education (www.ein55.com/blog) over the past 4 months since the pandemic started in Feb 2020, summer 2020 was a key factor and global Covid-19 trends have been reported to fade away by then.

With restart of economies in most global countries from June 2020, economy starts to show V-shape recovery. Oil price at low optimism starts to recover strongly after the negative oil price a few weeks ago, preparing for higher demand by the world after lockdown is over.

US job market is improving for May 2020, S&P 500 rises to another high of nearly 3200 points, could break historical high of 3300+ points if this momentum continues in June. Asia stock markets also recover gradually with less fear.

Warren Buffett is not wrong (selling Airlines stocks and bank stocks) as his actions are aligned with his own personality (sell when outlook is uncertain or beyond his knowledge) and this is only his partial stock portfolio, still holding lots of other stocks. So, even if stock market is truly recovering, Warren Buffett and Berkshire would benefit (rising in stock prices is a proof).

Those investors who follow Warren Buffett blindly (copy his actions and even extend to sell all stocks) are wrong as they don’t align the strategies with their own personalities, some even greedy to wait to buy all stocks at the lowest point (which no one knows), may end up missing the opportunity boat or given option to buy at much higher prices (旁观者迷).

There are 2 ways of analysis: relative and absolute way. Therefore, even for a bearish stock market or economy, some may view “less negative” as positive. This is similar to a weak business which should lose $1M yearly but when losing “only” $100k, it is considered positive.

Ideally economy should be strong to support stock market. However, during Covid-19 crisis, relative method may be applied.

Stock market is forward looking, therefore some traders prefer to look at price alone which could reflect most of the key market factors including emotions. A smart investor may combine business fundamental and trading together. The biggest enemy is usually ourselves, whether we are comfortable with the strategy, either short term trading or long term investing.

Analysts who have been bearish would keep quiet for a few weeks, then more posts will come out when there is correction over 10% again. Now, there will be more posts on bullish stock market. Readers would hear different views each time, eventually not able to take action at all if simply follow others.

There are always 2 views of market: bull or bear, that’s why for each transaction, there is always a pair of buyer and seller. Don’t follow analysts blindly. Instead, leverage on the views, do additional filtering, aligning with own personality.

No expert would know what may happen for tomorrow’s share price but in longer term, business with sustainable growth would have higher chance to make profits in business to support the rising price.

Since no one could see the future, a stock investor may need to apply probability investing during this uncertain period: position in 10-20 giant stocks (strikers / mid-fielders / defenders) with strategies (eg. momentum / growth / dividend / undervalue, etc) aligned with own personalities (eg. short term trading or long term / life investing), minimizing risks with multiple entries / exits.

It is fun to “watch” and cheer in the football game but at the end, observers may waste the time and money if not able to take even the first action nor having a clear strategy.

Running out of ideas of What Stocks to Buy? Read hundreds of articles by Dr Tee over the past few months of global stock crisis.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr investment course to learn how to position in global giant stocks with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Learn further from Dr Tee valuable 7hr Online Course, both English (How to Discover Giant Stocks) and Chinese (价值投资法: 探测强巨股) options, specially for learners who prefer to master stock investment strategies of over 100 global giant stocks at the comfort of home.

You are invited to join Dr Tee private investment forum (educational platform, no commercial is allowed) to learn more investment knowledge, interacting with over 9000 members.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Dr Tee Video Education: Divergence of Stock and Economy (股票与经济:背道而驰之谜)

divergence of stock and economy

In this Dr Tee 2-hr video education (Mystery of Divergence in Stock and Economy ), you will learn:
1) How to position with different direction in global stock and economy.
2) Master 3 key economic indicators for global economy (US, Singapore, China, Europe).
3) Mixed signals in investment clock of global stock markets, comparing US, Singapore, Hong Kong & China.
4) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.
5) Defensive Investing Strategies during Stock Crisis.

Here is English Version of Dr Tee Video Course (Chinese version is also available as Dr Tee is bilingual). Enjoy and give your comments for improvement. You may subscribe to Dr Tee Youtube channel (Ein Tee) for future Dr Tee video talks. Collect 3 extra bonuses here.

English Video: https://youtu.be/Gs3tsbncBS4

在这Dr Tee 90分钟教育视频(股票与经济:背道而驰之谜),您可学习:
1) 学习定位全球股票与经济各奔东西。
2) 掌握三大经济指标,把脉环球经济(美国、新加坡、中国、欧洲)。
3) 各国新冠病毒技术分析:疫情周期,预估结束点。
4) 投资时钟的交叉讯号(短期、中期、长期):全球、美国、新加坡、香港、中国。
5) 危机入市的防御性投资策略。

这儿是 Dr Tee 华语视频 (英语视频也已完成,Dr Tee 双语皆行)。请欣赏鄙作,留言求进步。您可订阅 Dr Tee Youtube 频道(Ein Tee),链接未来投资视频。这里得额外三红利

Chinese Video (华语视频): https://youtu.be/uaPHWaRFuEM

This defensive investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Riding the Dark Horse Stock with Economy Wagon

Stock with Economy

US job market has improved further, jobless claim as of Feb 2018 is the lowest over the past 50 years, implying more Americans have jobs, having salaries monthly, therefore stronger spending power which would help the bullish US economy to grow further. Currently it is employee market, the company may need to pay higher salary to keep the staff. The bullish No 1 economy (US) would help the rest of the world stock with economy to grow together.
 
The corporate tax reduction by Trump from 35% to 21% has helped the companies to achieve higher earning by saving of 40% tax. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway book value has gone up tremendously by $65 Billions in year 2017, about $36 Billions is from company business, remaining $29 Billions from the recent tax reform. It means for every $2 value gained by Warren Buffett in year 2017, $1 is from the business, another $1 is contributed by Trump through the tax reduction. This is not limited to Warren Buffett company. This is applied to entire US companies, therefore the hidden stimulus plan is massive.
 
The impact would be tremendous over the next few years, may result in overheated economy and bullish stock market with over-spending, higher inflation, therefore higher interest rate. The recent global stock market correction is healthy, bringing the stock market (price) closer to economy (value). If the wild horse of stock is not tamed, sooner or later it would fall off the cliff (black swan) or tripped over a rock (crisis), hurting the master (economy) and global investors and traders.
 
It is fine to ride the horse with economy wagon, up the hill of stock market. The rider (stock trader) has to monitor the emotions of horses (especially for unpredictable dark horses, stock which perform inconsistently) as upside will become when running too fast for too long. If the horse could rest from time to time, having enough food (supplied by master through stable economy), the journey of bullish stock market could be longer. Learn how to manage the stock with economy.
Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)