Top 10 Global Blue Chip Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio

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There are over 40,000 stocks in the world, a smart investor has to carefully choose Top 10 global blue chip stocks aligned with own unique personality as investment portfolio to grow the wealth.

A smart investor should form a dream team portfolio with global Top 10 stocks for both passive incomes and capital gains. Let’s learn step-by-step with a portfolio of 10 global blue chip stocks with strong fundamentals in 8 growing sectors (Bank, Property, REIT, F&B, Casino, Consumer, Oil & Gas, ETF), applying Ein55 Optimism as investment clock, waiting patiently to buy low in global financial crisis and sell high in bullish stock market for tremendous potential return.  These Top 10 stocks are diversified over 4 countries: 4 from Singapore, 3 from USA, 2 from Hong Kong, 1 from Malaysia.  Strength and opportunities for each stock and suggested strategies will be explained.

Stock investment is not just what to buy, the mastery of investment clock is crucial, knowing when to buy and sell to maximize the profit.  In general, Buy when Optimism <25%, Hold or Wait when Optimism 25-75%, Sell when Optimism >75% (see sample Ein55 Optimism in Figure below).

 

(#1)  ICBC (Hong Kong, HKEx: 1398), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Defender / Midfielder Strategies: For long term investing, collect stable dividend payment as passive income with China and Temasek protection. Maximize dividend yield when buying stock at low optimism.  For medium term trading, apply Ein55 Optimism to buy low sell high every few years for quicker capital gains.

Banner 1 - ICBC

ICBC is the largest bank in China and also the whole world (based on current share price and valuation).  The business with stable growing fundamental is supported by strong economy in China with large population.  Temasek is a major shareholder, providing stability to the share prices, an additional shield of defense for investors.  With increasing US and global central bank interest rates, the outlook for banking and finance stocks are positive as the net interest margin (NIM) will help the global banks to grow in earnings until the next global financial crisis.

Current Ein55 Optimism of ICBC is high at 78% (see Figure above), in addition to hold for stable 6% dividend yield, an investor also has an option to sell the stock first, buying back when share price drops to below 25% Optimism in future, aiming to maximize the dividend yield.  Since global stock market is at high optimism, an investor has to take note of the signals of global financial crisis which would affect the global banking and finance stocks significantly.  Crisis is an opportunity if an investor knows when to buy a strong fundamental stock at price with low Ein55 Optimism.

ICBC is a bank stock, cyclic in nature due to volatile China / Hong Kong stock market and economic cycles.  Therefore, besides being a “Defender” stock (dividends only), it may also be considered as a “Striker” (capital gains only) or “Midfielder” (capital gains and dividends) for trading in medium term, following trends to long or short, gaining from average 65% profit from medium-term volatility of share prices with cyclic investing every 2-3 years.

 

(#2)  Berkshire Hathaway Class-B (US, NYSE: BRK.B)

Midfielder Strategy: High-growth fund for capital gains with Warren Buffett wisdom when buying at low optimism

Banner 2 - Berkshire - B

Warren Buffett is the richest investor in the world.  Berkshire Hathaway represents an average performance of Buffett’s investment portfolio.  Berkshire Class-A stock is very expensive, approaching $300,000 for 1 share, mainly suitable for high net worth individuals or big funds with long term investment strategies as the stock did not pay dividend, there was no change in number of shares, all the retained earnings for decades are accumulated and reflected in its growing share prices.  Berkshire Class-B stock is a more affordable option for retail investors, pro-rated at 1/1500 price of the Class-A stock, below $200 / share currently.

Berkshire Class-B allows an easy way for retail investor to diversify over a portfolio of strong fundamental stocks owned by Warren Buffett. Despite Berkshire is a growth giant stock, it is still susceptible to systematic risk of economy cycle. During global financial crisis in 2008-2009, Berkshire share price was halved due to excessive market fear. An investor who follows Ein55 Optimism to buy below 25% Optimism, the current share price has gone up by 3 times, currently at high optimism of 79% (see Figure above).

As an investor, one has 3 possible options for investing in Berkshire stock.  Firstly, assuming a buy & hold long term strategy, one may continue to hold the stock despite at high optimism but using the strong fundamental to overcome the next global financial crisis. This option is only suitable for those who have strong investor mindset, bought the share at low optimism price last time. Secondly, an investor may adopt cyclic investing approach, selling Berkshire stock first, buying back at <25% Optimism in future. This option is suitable for those investors who know how to integrate trading and economy cycle investing into overall strategy. Finally, a smart investor has the choice of buying better stocks than Warren Buffett, i.e. focusing on a few best component stocks of Berkshire to achieve higher growth than Berkshire but still enjoying the protection by Warren Buffett as a major shareholder of these few stocks.

The remaining 8 of the Top 10 blue chip stocks in dream team portfolio with key summary of strategies and Ein55 Optimism Investment Clock can be found here (30 pages eBook). Click to Download FREE eBook #1 by Dr Tee: “Global Top 10 Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio” (latest version of eBook with complete guide of What to Buy, When to Buy, When to Sell).

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In the same eBook Download link, reader will get another FREE eBook #2 by Dr Tee: “Global Market Outlook 2018” covers comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy.  Past readers have benefited from the analysis. Learn to position for each market crisis and opportunity with Ein55 Optimism Strategies.

Table of Contents (eBook: Global Stock Market Outlook 2018)

  1. Mass Market Sentiment Survey
  2. Review of Global Stock Markets
  3. US Market Outlook (Economy, Stock, Property, Commodity, Bond, USD)
  4. Regional Market Outlook (Europe, China, Hong Kong)
  5. Singapore Market Outlook (Stock & Property)
  6. Conclusions and Recommendations

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The key of stock trading and investing is to match our goals with our personalities, there are at least 10 different strategies to choose.  When Ein55 Optimism Strategies are combined with Fundamental Analysis (value investing & growth investing), Technical Analysis (support / resistance / trends), and Personal Analysis (mind control of greed and fear), it is very powerful when one is able to take the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Short) at the right time aligning with own personality.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including option of long term holding.  So far over 10,000 audience have benefited from Dr Tee high quality free courses to the public.  Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

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Summary of $90,000 Charity Courses for Tzu Chi (慈济) with High Dividend Stocks

Ein55 Newsletter No 076 - image - Charity - HDS

Dr Tee, Ein55 Mentor & Graduates have together organised 5 charity investment courses (REITs/Business Trusts in Nov 2015 and May 2017, High Dividend stocks in Mar 2016 and Oct 2017, and Discounted NAV stocks in Sep 2016) in the past 2 years, donating net income of around $90,500 to Tzu Chi 慈济 (Singapore). We hope to inspire more Ein55 Graduates to reach out the society, helping others who are in need.  More importantly, they have also learned the secrets of making money through investment. When more Ein55 Graduates are successful financially, they could also contribute back to the society to help more people in future.

Here are key learning points from the recent Charity Course on High Dividend Stocks:

1) Five Characteristics of High Dividend Yield Stocks

1.1) Mature Company that have already growth to sizable scale, meaning Equity > US$1B, Market Cap >US$1B, with stable Revenue >US$1B

1.2) Dividend pay-out ratio of at least 50% or more

1.3) Fundamentally remain strong and robust for many years to come because company have certain economy moat.

1.4) Low CAPEX business

1.5) Able to generate stable Free Cash Flow

 

2) Seven Myths about Dividend Investing

Myth:  Stock prices are adjusted downward when dividends are paid.

Truth: Stock prices are adjusted on XD date, not on dividend payment date.

 

Myth:   Dividend stocks are always safe

Truth:  A company can stop payout of dividend when business is declining, may not be always safe.

 

Myth:  Companies that pay dividends limit growth

Truth: The growth depends on business concept / innovation, leading to consistent profit and cash flow to pay for dividend. A company could have both dividend payment and high business growth at the same time.

 

Myth:  The highest yielding stocks are the best

Truth: It can be risky because high yield stocks could have weak business with falling share prices.

 

Myth:  Dividends are guaranteed upon company announcement

Truth:  Company can cancel the dividend payout even after announcement

 

Myth:  Investors should buy the cheapest dividend stocks

Truth:  Dividend investor intention is to have low risk investment, better pick up healthy dividend stock

 

Myth:  Dividend stocks are boring

Truth: Dividend stocks are still investment that could rise and drop at any time, requiring investors to pay close attention to monitor and follow up the stocks.  An investor should not feel boring when receiving consistent dividend payment to their bank accounts as passive incomes.

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We should drive the money (helping others when you are successful), not driven by the money (making money only for own gain).  Investors should learn the unique Optimism Strategies with FA (Fundamental Analysis) + TA (Technical Analysis) + PA (Personal Analysis) developed by Dr Tee to choose strong global stocks, buying them at low price, then holding for consistent dividend payout or selling for high capital gains.  High-quality free stock investment courses are provided by Dr Tee to the public.

 

Investing Strategies for US Stock Markets (S&P, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell) at Historical Peaks

Ein55 Newsletter No 075 - image - Market Peak 2

US major stock market indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq, Russel 2000) set new record of historical high again with 8th quarterly gains in a row. The earlier nuclear “crisis” has set a nice market correction for short term traders to buy low and sell high now.

US and most global stock markets (including Singapore) are still under a bull market but mainly suitable for shorter term trading due to moderate high market optimism. Despite at historical high stock prices, long term Optimism for US stock market is about 81%, still have room for further growth, although it is limited by probability.

One has to know own’s personality (trader or investor), designing the right trading plan or investing strategy for the current stock market. The US market is ideal for short term trading, buy high sell higher, especially after breaking 2500 points for S&P 500.

Singapore STI is still supported above 3200 points with Optimism about 48%, getting stagnant over the past few months. With global stock markets are still at relatively high optimism, market risks are getting higher but there are still opportunities for everyone but need to align with own personalities:

1) Short Term Traders: Buy High Sell Higher (Duration: weeks)

– entering after each break out of high resistance but not hesitating to exit when the signal is reversed

2) Medium Term Traders: Buy Low Sell High (Duration: months)

– buying after intermediate correction, focusing on bullish mid-term stock markets

3) Long Term Investors: Sell High Buy Low (Duration: years)

– selling stocks on hold at high optimism with declining bullishness, waiting to buy low during the next global financial crisis.

 

Short-term or Long-term Investing? Choose the One that Works for You!

Ein55 Newsletter No 071 - image - Long Term or Short Term (V2)

As much as I love investing, I believe that most of us invest with a similar goal in mind, i.e. to make money, to get our money to work for us, and to attain financial freedom. However, considering how different investors can be when it comes to styles and personalities, there is really no one rule that applies to all. Perhaps, that also explains why the stock market is so confusing and unpredictable in the first place.

There is no way to know what every single person thinks, but we can make our lives easier by knowing our own investing personalities and what floats our boats. Boiling down to the basics, you need to know whether you are a short-term trader or a long-term investor (though in real life, many of us are a mix of both).

 

Short-term Trading

You will like short-term trading if:

  • You are comfortable with keeping an investment for only a short period of a few weeks, or even days.
  • Your goal is to make quick bucks to reach a shorter-term goal, e.g. purchasing a car, funding a vacation, etc.
  • You are not a fan of doing extensive fundamental research on the businesses that you have invested in, but you are able/ willing to commit a significant amount of time to trading and checking stocks.
  • You are ok with taking risks and dealing with profits and losses due to short-term price fluctuations.
  • You can accept high transaction costs as a result of frequent trades, which reduces your income in a bigger proportion as compared to long-term investing.

 

Misperceptions of Short-term Trading

  1. Short-term trading does not require patience.

Truth: Even for a short-term trader, not every day is a trading day. We need to wait patiently for the best opportunity to long or short.

 

  1. Short-term trading is always about buying low then selling high.

Truth: Short-selling (profit from falling in share prices) is equally if not more important. Most people only know how to long the market, and therefore they lose money or end up doing nothing when the market is bearish.

Currently, there is still upside in the last phase of the bull market for short-term traders, possible to buy high sell higher but shorter term position should follow shorter term market signals.

In my free 4hr investment course, I will share with you high-probability trading techniques for short-term traders to profit from the rising and falling stock market.

 

  1. There is no need to read up on anything if I am trading short-term.

Truth: Short-term trading, being more speculative and volatile in nature, requires one to react quickly to market news and sentiments. In order to profit in both bearish and bullish markets, one would still need to read up to understand the impact of market-changing factors such as the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike, Donald Trump’s national policies, oil & gas crises, and global quantitative easing (QE), etc. It is important to know the impact of global economy on stock market.

 

Long Term Investing

On the other hand, you may like long-term investing if

  • You are okay with holding an investment for a long period of time, and buy or sell only once every few years.
  • You have a longer-term goal in mind, e.g. building resources for your retirement, and you are expecting your investment to increase in value over the long run, and/or also provide income in the form of dividends.
  • You prefer fundamental analysis to technical analysis.
  • You like value investing.

 

Misperceptions of Long-term Investing

  1. You do not have to hold a lot of cash if you are buying at a discount.

Truth: Even if you have met the “golden opportunity” where blue chips have more than a 50 percent discount in stock prices, you as an investor have to accumulate bullets (cash) to be able to make substantial profits when you buy low and sell high.

 

  1. If you are investing long-term, you can just sit on your stocks and not care about them for a long time.

Truth: While it may be true that you do not have to react to stock market changes immediately like short-term traders do, you still need to review and reevaluate your stock portfolio from time to time. Even in long-term investing, you would need to do spring cleaning regularly, classifying your stocks into different categories and treat them differently, for e.g. fundamentally-strong stocks for long-term holding, cyclical stocks to sell at a high, and junk stocks to sell at the right time, etc.

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Time flies, and before we realise it, half of 2017 has already passed. On a global level, stock markets have performed superbly for 1H2017, rewarding investors with attractive returns that have not been seen for quite a few years. How sustainable is the stock market rally then? Will there be a market correction?  Take actions now to position yourself for investment.

 

2 Simple Steps of Investment

Ein55 Newsletter No 068 - image - Investment Direction

Many people thought investment is very complicated, only for smart people. Actually, there are only 2 simple steps of investment to bridge between knowledge and fortune.  Let’s learn together here.

 

1) Set the Right Direction

Knowing the right direction to go is very important for any investment. One could be very hardworking but running in opposite direction, will be further away from the goal.

In investment, we need to know what are the good businesses which are profitable, sustainable for a long term.  We could simply buy their stocks to have a share of this wonderful business.  If one knows how to buy a portfolio of giant stocks, the undervalued or growing business with help to support the uptrend share price over the time.  However, if one partners with a losing business, buying their stock, the direction will be wrong, share prices will be declining as well.

Share prices could be emotional but they follow the mega trend of businesses.  If we could understand the fundamental of business, we could control the wild horse of share prices.

 

2) Take Action

Knowing the direction but if one does not take action to move, the goal cannot be reached.  Some may take smaller steps, some may walk faster, so the pace will vary for each person to achieve the goal, just sooner or later.

In investment, we need to learn to take one of the actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting, eg. for stocks.  Ideally, the choice of actions could be aligned with investment clock and personalities for best results.

However, even the simple action of “Buy” stock now and hold permanently could make money, if one knows how to set the direction correctly, buying a portfolio of giant stocks which could overcome all the cyclic stock market.  If one still hesitates without any action, despite hundreds of excellent plans with so much investment knowledge learned, there will be no fortune.

Still considering?  Don’t be just a knowledge collector.  Practice these 2 simple steps of investment: set the right direction and start your investment journey now!

System Formation of Personalized Investing Styles (破茧而出)

Ein55 Newsletter No 066 - image - Cave

Throughout our investing journey, we may have learned many fragments of skills along the way, a bit here and there, some fundamental, some technical, a little on property, a bit on trader psychology, etc.

Halfway in the exploration journey, we may focus on certain direction, eg. forex trading, property investment, REIT dividend investing, etc, depending on the interest and opportunity of one person.

Each advanced trader or expert investor will need to digest and generalize all the styles, forming into a trading or investing system which aligned with own styles. It may take years or even whole life to refine these investing habits which eventually become part of our life styles.

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I have done the same process before with formation of 55 Ein55 Investing Styles. Many years ago, I closed myself in a room for nearly 1 month, day and night working through my 20 years of trading and investing experience, aiming to form an universal system of trading and investing. The Ein55 styles of investing system is subsequently applied and tested with over 2000 graduates with diversified background, refining each day until now. It could be a lifelong process as I am also enriching my knowledge each day.

I also did something similar for my PhD degree in engineering many years ago, integrating all the scientific knowledge learned into a computer model, which is similar to a system. Subsequently in my professional engineering career, I have published over 150 technical papers before I could be recognized as an international expert in the field of engineering. As an extension of my interest, I have been integrating science and engineering into investing world.

This is similar to ancient time, a kungfu master has to hide in a cave for years, tidying up and integrating all the thoughts and styles, one day finally breaks open the enclosure when one has mastered the skills with formation of a personalized system, could be on kungfu, engineering, investing or our whole life.

闭关修炼、破茧而出。

 

Invest in Golden Goose or Golden Egg?

Businessman holding a goose that lays golden eggs

In the investment world, a golden goose can be a giant stock with growing or highly profitable company.  The golden eggs could be the quarterly or yearly dividend distributed by the business to shareholders.  The golden goose or business could grow in size and therefore could produce bigger golden eggs in future.

If one could have a golden goose which could lay a golden egg once a year, should the investor sell the golden goose to exchange for a big sum of money in short time or collecting the golden eggs patiently over a long time?

This is exactly the dilemma of some investors who hold on to a stock which has both passive income (eg. yearly dividend which is a golden egg) and capital gains over the time (golden goose becomes larger in size).  They may get disappointed at later time if they keep the golden goose (stock) but the size (market cap and capital gains) could vary over the time, sometimes could have a weight loss or price loss of 50% during global financial crisis.

On the other hand, if they decide to sell the golden goose, it is a one-time profit, they may regret later when the golden goose becomes larger with more eggs laid consistently each year.

In fact, there is no right or wrong choice. They key is to ensure it must be a golden goose or a strong business.  Whether buy low sell high (selling the golden goose) or buy & hold (growing the golden goose and collecting the golden eggs) is just a choice, matching own’s personality. In general, we should have 10 golden goose in our investing farm. Sometimes we may sell a goose for immediate gains when the goose grows faster than expected.  When the crisis comes, we may use the cash from the gains to buy other golden goose at cheaper price.  At the same time, the farm has some other golden goose which could lay eggs consistently even during the global financial crisis, providing stability to our overall investment.

One has to learn how to choose a golden goose, knowing when to buy / sell the goose and whether to keep the goose for golden eggs.

 

Key Learning Points of Ein55 Traders Psychology Course with Charity for Lighthouse School

 

Ein55 Newsletter No 064 - 2017-03-19 - Donation to Lighthouse School

Congratulations to Ein55 Mentor James Hon who has successfully completed the full-day PA #1 Course on Traders Psychology. Who could believe he is over 70 years old, able to talk loudly nearly non-stop without a microphone to over 100 students for the whole day!

The students have learned the power of PA (Personal Analysis), understanding the importance of personality based trading plans and investing strategies.  Here are some of the key learning points:

1) Develop Wisdom by combining Knowledge and Life Experience:

Knowledge + Experience = Wisdom

2) ECP = Experience leads to Confidence, which enables your willingness to apply your system with Persistence.

3) The 3S of Trading Success:

Survive -> Sustain -> Succeed

4) Knowing where you want to be (Goal), you will be able to follow through (Persistent); persistence keeps you calm, calmness enables you to let go of emotional stress (Detach), then you will be able to attain result through careful deliberation.

知止而后有定,定而后能静,静而后能安,安而后能虑,虑而后能得。《大学》

知道应该达到的境界才能够使自己志向坚定;志向坚定才能够镇静不躁;镇静不躁才能够心安理得;心安理得才能够思虑周祥;思虑周祥才能够有所收获。

5) Gain the Awareness to define your own roadmap to develop the right Habits.

Ein55 Newsletter No 064 - 2017-03-19 - PA Course

 

Life is not just making money. To encourage successful Ein55 Graduates to help other needy groups, Ein55 Mentor James Hon and Dr Tee take the lead to donate to a charity organization, Lighthouse School. The school has been helping children with vision and hearing impairs to gain confidence in life through special education.

Ein55 graduate, Grace Poon, who is a volunteer and donor to Lighthouse School, has shared her experience in helping these special needs children through a choir. One of the motivation factors for Grace in learning investment is to help other needy group with the gains from investment. We hope her sharing could inspire more Ein55 Graduates to help other needy groups one day!

Let’s hear the beautiful sounds of these children in Purple Symphony, we could feel how the music has given a new meaning in life to them:

 

3 Special F&B Stocks in Singapore

Ein55 Newsletter No 063 - image - F&B

Food & Beverages (F&B) stocks are usually cash cows, collecting cash or credit cards for payment after meals. It is easy to monitor the business, even if one does not know how to read financial reports, you just need to be a customer one time, see whether you will go back again to the same restaurant. Let’s analyse 3 different types of F&B stocks.

Jumbo (SGX: 42R) is a young giant stock to be proven further in the next few years.  I still remember a few years ago when I visited this restaurant, they requested the dinner must be completed by 8pm when we went there around 6:30pm, this is how they could maximize the capacity by giving fast service.  Its business fundamental has been reported strong since IPO, one way which earning could growth is through more successful expansion plan overseas. Now we could also enjoy their chili crabs in 3 branches in China.  Perhaps one day it may be like Breadtalk, can be found in global major cities.

 

Breadtalk (SGX: 5DA) will help Ding Tai Fung, the famous Taiwanese Restaurant (usually full house or long queue), to enter the UK market.  Market is no longer limited to the small 5 millions population of Singapore, whole world is the market but the judgment of taste could vary from one country to another country.

Breadtalk has been recovering from low optimism over the last 1 year when price was below $1.10.  Congratulations to Ein55 Graduates who have taken action, recent share price is around $1.30, more than 20% gains.  For Ein55 Graduates, they have learned how to position for Breadtalk through a homework.

 

Auric Pacific (SGX: A23), another F&B stock, is acquired by the main shareholder.  This is truly a F&B stock in Singapore, covering our 3 meals, owning familiar brands of Sunshine Bread (breakfast), Food Junction (Lunch) and Delifrance (Dinner).

Auric Pacific is not really a giant stock (based on Ein55 Giant Detector) but the share price dropped to half in the last few years, creating opportunity for main shareholder to buy low and fully own the company.  The offer price of $1.65 is at 100% Optimism, a selling price worth consideration for existing minority shareholders.

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There are about 50 F&B stocks in Singapore, we should only consider the Top 5 stocks. Super Group is rated as No 3 F&B Giant, acquired a few months ago.  How to know which are giant F&B? Ask yourself, where will you and your friends go for breakfast, lunch and dinner?  Too subjective?

Alternatively, apply Ein55 Giant Detector to identify the F&B giants in Singapore and globally, then use Optimism Strategy as investment clock to own these cash cows when other people are fearful or not interested. Investing is as easy as that but not everyone has the patience to wait for the “meals” to be served for so long!  Know yourself, finding the right business partner for you by owning their shares.

 

Blessing in Disguise: US Interest Rate Hike

Ein55 Newsletter No 062 - 2017-03-14 - Interest Rate Hike

We could observe the emotions of market, how it affects the stocks in both ways. Last few years, when global economy was lagging, news of US interest rate hike is a negative factor. Now, interest rate hike becomes a neutral or even positive news as the market assumes it means the economy is strong, therefore stock market and other investment market (property, etc) will follow the uptrend.

Stock market is emotional, people interpret the market based on the mass market sentiment, following the herd mentality. If we are one of the herd, our investment performance could be average. If the market is a zero-sum game, who will pay for the people who are making money?  Unfortunately, some people need to lose money.

Ein55 Investment Style #22 (Blessing in Disguise) describes exactly the stock market and economy relationship in the last few years till now. When I taught this principle several years ago, some graduates may not fully understand why it is a blessing disguise until they observe the QE tapering about 2 years ago and then US interest rate hikes over the past few years. Ein55 Investment Styles will be appreciated more if we could relate to stock market behaviours. This is the reason of my sharing from time to time here.

I have also pointed in many earlier public workshops and investment eBook (Market Outlook) that both QE tapering and US interest rate hike would become blessings in disguise. However, this opportunity is more suitable for a trader to ride the uptrend and one must know when to get out from the uncontrolled roller coaster at new peak one day.

A blessing in disguise could become a real crisis when more people are optimistic.  Pay attention when US interest rate is over 2-3% range, a black swan may swim in quietly while others are celebrating for the bull.