4 Critical Actions in Bullish Stock Market

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There are many people confused, what they should do in the phase2 of bull market. Which action is right? Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

The answer is dependent on unique personality and condition. In general, we could broadly categorize 4 types of critical actions for 4 groups of traders and investors. Each of them as a gift from heaven:

 

1) Long Term Investor (No Stock)
– best gift from heaven is to wait patiently for global financial crisis, applying low optimism to buy fundamentally strong stocks at lousy price

– intermediate plan is for a long term investor to apply mid-term trading (provided able to match with this personality) to profit from the phase2 of bull market, but the investor must follow trading exit strategy as Optimism is high.

 

2) Long Term Investor (with Stocks)
– examine the past entry price, was it low optimism? If yes, hold during intermediate optimism (with consideration of L2-L4 signals), prepare to take profit when optimism is high. Ein55 Graduates have learned many techniques to integrate trading into investing to maximize the gains.

– after selling the stocks one day, move to Group1 for next action.

 

3) Short Term Trader (No Stock)
– 2 possible strategies, 1) buy low sell high (swing trading) which requires a minor correction, 2) buy high sell higher (position trading) with momentum trading or breakout strategy, entering when a critical resistance is broken upward.

 

4) Short Term Trader (with Stocks)
– hold and take profit using quicker signal, different price target as Group 2.

– after exit, the buy/sell process could be repeated many times until the bull run has ended one day, then applying reversed strategy of shorting to profit from bearish market one day. Trend follower for short term trader.

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In summary, there is no one solution, one could make money with any action aligning to one’s personality: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting. If there is a mismatch in personality with strategy, then any action could result in losses eventually. So, we should know ourselves first before planning for stock trading or investing. Actual personality is much more complicated, each one of us is unique but the 4 types above are the most common ones: trader vs investor, with and without stocks.

We need to take action to convert knowledge into fortune. It has to be the right action at right time, aligning to our unique personality.

4 Seasons of Investing with Optimism Strategies

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There are three schools of thought to achieve the best of both worlds in stock trading and investing. To bridge these three schools of thought, i.e. Fundamental Analysis (FA: business and economic performance), Technical Analysis (TA: price movement) and Personal Analysis (PA: emotional management), I have formulated the Optimism Strategies.

The essence of the optimism strategies is to identify fundamentally strong stocks, and buy/sell at a time aligned with technical analysis indicators, matching our personalities to take the right actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Short.

It may seem hard to practise the above when pessimism is looming over the markets, but as investors, we all need a bit of optimism.

To make things simpler, I measure optimism on a 0 to 100% scale, where 0% stands for fearfulness or extreme pessimism, and 100% stands for greed or extreme optimism.

The general aim of investors is to find the best time for entry or exit by applying the Optimism Strategy at four different levels: Level 1 – individual stocks, Level 2 – sector/ industry, Level 3 – country/region, and Level 4 – world.

However, most undisciplined retail investors would simply follow the herd mentality—buying when everyone is buying and selling when everyone is selling. But again, these people usually end up buying high and selling low, and thus losing in investment.

 

Don’t be Thrown Off by the Word “Crisis”

I think a very important part of being optimistic is to not be afraid of crises, and not be distracted by “what everyone is saying”, because every crisis presents an opportunity.

If we were to observe how frequently crises occur, we will find that Level-1 crises happen almost all the time. Wind ups happen for weak companies when the earnings, assets, and/or cash flow are insufficient to pay for the debt. This could happen very unexpectedly; such was the case for Swiber.

Level-2 crises tend to follow the market cycle of the particular sector, for example oil & gas, casino, etc. But that also means that opportunities can be found every few months.

Level-3 crisis could happen every year, e.g. the US losing AAA credit rating (2011), China stock crisis (2015), Brexit crisis (2016), etc.

Level-4 crisis is even bigger in scale, but less frequent as well. Picture the Dotcom Bubble (2001) and Subprime Crisis (2008).

The above sound scary, don’t they? But I think that the greatest investment opportunities lie in the most fearful and most unexpected financial crises. This brings me to the next point.

 

The 4 Seasons of Investing

Of course, I don’t mean seasons in the literal sense, neither am I referring to the quarters in a year.

I use seasons as an analogy to describe market optimism. Winter is cold and seemingly lifeless, so I use it to represent a time/period when investors’ interest is very low (Optimism < 25%).

Summer, on the other hand, is hot and vibrant. I use it to represent a time when investors’ interest is high (Optimism > 75%).

Spring and autumn are seasons with milder climates, thus these two seasons refer to times when investors’ interest is average.

Needless to say, seasons come in cycles. Knowing that the market neither prospers nor stagnates forever, our aim is to enter investment in “winter” (when others are fearful), and exit in “summer” (when others are greedy).

Based on the concept of the four seasons, I have formulated a strategy to pick the optimum times of entering or exiting the market, as depicted in the diagram below:

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If  you are unsure about what this diagram means, I will be giving a more detailed breakdown of the approach investors can take in my free investment course.

If you’re interested to learn more, you may stay tune to my upcoming articles in this space or even attend a free investment course where I would explain the concepts more in-depth. During the free 3hr high-quality short course to the public, I will also share about 5 out of my 55 investment styles. Click on the button below to find out more about the latest upcoming workshop.

Investment Strategies for Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – Low Risk High Return

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Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is getting popular among the investors, total global asset value has exceeded US$3 trillion.  ETF has the best DNA of both stocks and investment funds.  ETF is an investment fund which can be traded like stocks, having the stability of investment funds (risk diversification over a large portfolio) and flexibility of stocks (buy / sell in stock market) with minimal fund management fee.

There are thousands of ETFs globally over various investment markets, eg:

  • Stocks: SPY, STI, QQQ, RSX, XLE
  • Bonds: SHY, TIP, AGG
  • Commodities: USO, GLD, DBA
  • Currencies: FXA, FXB, FXC

Famous ETFs providers are SPDRs, iShares, PowerShares, ProShares, Vanguard, etc.  For stocks ETFs, it could be related to stock indices, sectors or a group of stocks selected by the fund managers, either actively or passively managed.  Some ETFs could be operated inversely (shorting, eg, PSQ – ProShares Short QQQ ETF, higher ETF price with falling in Nasdaq 100 stocks) or with leverage (Ultra, eg. SSO – Ultra S&P500 Proshares, 2 times leveraging of S&P500 stock index movement).

An investor must learn how to choose the top 10 global ETFs, aligning with own personality and investment goals.  Fund managers could help in what to buy, diversifying the investment over a large portfolio to lower the risks.  For those with limited capital, ETF is a low-cost way of investment diversification, 1 ETF is equivalent to a portfolio of many stocks with good businesses.  It is also easier to monitor 1 ETF, comparing to monitor the entire index with hundreds of component stocks.

S&P500 stock index is a common fund of choice for ETF because this is an investment in US, No 1 economy in the world, through 500 top US stocks.  SPY is a popular ETF by SPDR on S&P500.  Let’s learn how to buy low sell high for medium term trading.  Currently S&P500 is near to historical high price, long term optimism is moderate high, not suitable for investing.  However, for medium term traders, each correction of mid-term optimism (see chart below) below 25%, creates a new trading opportunity to buy low.  The reward to risk ratio for mid-term trading is around 2:1 (66% upside vs 34% downside, due to 34% Optimism).  Over the past 4 years, SPY ETF has appreciated by 72% due to capital gains in S&P500 stocks.  It is relatively safer to trade SPY ETF (through S&P500) compared to trade 1 US stock.

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Which is the Real Black Swan? Learn to Profit from the next Global Financial Crisis

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In the ancient time, Europeans thought that swans are all white in colour until one day, black swan was found in Australia, it became a surprised news.  Black swan event is a financial term used to describe an unexpected event which later evolved into global financial crisis.  There were people and company went bankrupt during the downfall of global stock market.  There were also people who took advantage to buy good business at low price, making many times of fortune in a short time when the crisis is over.

Every crisis is an opportunity. However, there are different scales of financial crisis, from Level-1 (company level, eg. Swiber or Noble), Level-2 (sector level, eg. Shipping Industry), Level-3 (country level, eg. Russia) to Level-4 (global financial crisis).  Level-1 crisis happened almost all the time, weak company could wind up the business when the earning, asset or cashflow is insufficient to pay for the debt. Level-2 crisis follows the unique sector market cycle, eg. Oil & Gas crisis, casino crisis, opportunity could be found every few months, suitable only for trading if it is not aligned with higher level of crisis.  Level-3 crisis could happen every year, eg. Euro Debt Crisis (2010-2012), US losing AAA credit rating (2011), China stock crisis (2015), Brexit crisis (2016), creating a good opportunity for both traders and investors.  However, none of them could be named as Black Swan event or Level-4 crisis (global financial crisis), similar to Dotcom Bubble (2001) and Subprime Crisis (2008).

The greatest investment opportunity requires the most fearful financial crisis in an in unexpected way.  Every year in a bull market, many “Dr Doom” will try to predict each event could become the next global financial crisis, but why it usually ended up just a smaller scale of regional crisis?  In fact, each of the yearly financial crisis could become the next global financial crisis but it requires greater fear to trigger.  Based on Ein55 Optimism Strategies (see chart below), global financial crisis will more likely to occur when world stock index is over 75% optimism, eg. in year 2000 (which triggered the dotcom bubble in 2001) and year 2007 (which triggered the subprime crisis in year 2008).  For other smaller scale crisis (Euro Debt, Brexit, US credit crisis, etc), world stock market was at mid optimism level (<60%), it was not greedy enough, therefore the global investors were also not fearful enough to escape at the same time when crisis happened.

In the past 20 years, world stock market has gone up 3.4 times in share prices (see chart below), a highly profitable investment option. World stock market index was at the critical 75% Optimism in year 2015, the global stock market correction has helped to cool down to moderate high level of 60% Optimism.  With US S&P500 index reaching historical high every few months, world stock market has been increasing in optimism level, risk is getting higher each day (40% upside, 60% downside) but not back to the critical level yet.  If there is still a last rally, global stock market could be speculated to a high optimism level, the black swan of the next global financial crisis will be likely to wait there.  We don’t have to guess what and when is the black swan event because it is unpredictable in nature, therefore it is called a black swan. However, Ein55 Optimism Strategies could help us to prepare for that golden opportunity in future.  As long as we are not too greedy, taking profit at high optimism (>75%), we could save enough capital, overcome our fear to buy low at low optimism (<25%) and hold until recovery of world economy, making profit from global financial crisis.

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How to Capture Falling Knife Safely for Stocks in Crisis?

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Every crisis is an opportunity.  We have learned to be greedy when others are fearful.  However, not everyone is mentally prepared to buy low and sell high following one’s personality.  When a business is in crisis, the stock price is like a falling knife, one could get hurt when enters too early, buy low and may get lower, emotionally affected with the endless falling prices.

For example, over the last 2 years of crude oil crisis, stock prices of global oil & gas stocks are significantly corrected. Singapore oil & gas stock index is at 9% optimism (see chart below), a very attractive price level over the last 10 years, upside is much higher than downside from a long term perspective.  However, whenever there is a technical rebound due to good news (eg. recovery of crude oil price), there could be another negative news who correct it down further (eg. Swiber plans to wind up the business recently).

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Here are a few important considerations for us to safely capture the falling knife of a stock in crisis:

1) Fundamental Analysis

Some weaker stocks may not survive through the crisis. It is critical to always consider giant stocks with strong fundamentals.  Based on the survival of the fittest, after the winter is over, these strong stocks will grow stronger, especially there are less competitors with higher demand then.  For more conservative investors, one could wait patiently for signs of reversal in the business performance.

 

2) Technical Analysis

While long term view of a stock could be at attractive low price, the intermediate price trend usually is bearish for a stock or sector in crisis, eg. commodity, shipping, casino, etc.  It is important to follow the trend before entry, waiting for the falling knife to drop the floor first, before pick it up safely.  Confirmation of uptrend is required, aligning Level 1 (individual stock), Level 2 (sector / industry), Level 3 (country / region) and Level 4 (whole world).

 

3) Personal Analysis

One should know own’s personality before deciding whether short term trading or long term investing is a more suitable approach.  It is hard to force a trader to buy low and wait for several years to have tremendous capital gains.  At the same time, a true investor could grab an opportunity even with counter trend in prices, ignoring the daily market news, using strong holding power to reverse the trend eventually, buy low sell high.

 

Roller Coaster Investment Strategy with Walt Disney in Global Financial Crisis

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You are tortured with turning upside down, but still willing to pay to exchange for this experience. This is the glamour of Disneyland, a defensive recession-proof entertainment industry, which you could profit through investment partnership with Walt Disney stock, a nearly 100 years old business.

There are many mega theme parks in the world, why there are so many people fascinated about Disneyland? Personally I have been to Disneyland in Florida, California, Japan and Hong Kong.  The new Disneyland is opening in Shanghai, overwhelming response, a new gold mine for the company.  Disney’s power is with its intangible asset of brand, for so many years, from watching Disney cartoons to movies and all kinds of Disney related products. Everyone of us still has a childhood dream which becomes real only in the world of Disney.

Enjoy the rides, including the roller coaster. My first experience with roller coaster was in Six Flags Texas when I was still an undergraduate many years ago, trying the world Tallest wooden roller coaster at that time. The outcome is predictable, I was so nervous and scared, not enjoyable at all. After so many years of roller coaster experience, I learn to be flexible, following the trend of movement (eg. move the body when turning together), imagining it is only a swing or a bird flying in the sky, then I could enjoy it.

We can learn a lot about investment from the rides:

1) Following the mega market trend. It is painful when we try to move against it.  Each of us should define our comfortable levels of rides, from short term trading, mid term trading to long term investing.

2) Cyclic movement, what goes up will come down. That’s why we should buy low sell high, not following our emotions of greed and fear.  For experienced riders, they actually becomes fearful when roller coaster is hanging at the peak because they know the predictable next move: falling down!

3) At the end of ride, you will be fine.  If we learn how to find giant stocks, regardless up and down in share prices, eventually the business is still making money each month and each year, we will become the final winner.

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Walt Disney stock (NYSE: DIS), is falling from its peak of $120, currently at 65% long-term Optimism (see chart).  In the last stock market cycle, an investor could apply Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee to buy Walt Disney at $24 (25% Optimism) in year 2009, selling at $120 (75% Optimism) in year 2015 with potential gain of 5 times.  For investors, they should have sold the stock in 2015 as the risk of falling is 65% with limited upside (35%).  At the same time, regional crisis including Brexit and economy slowdown, has created a mid-term low optimism, suitable for trading Walt Disney.  The right action or strategy depends on our personality.

Walt Disney is a global giant stock worth consideration during crisis at Level 3 (country/regional crisis) or Level 4 (global financial crisis) for investing.  The earning per share over the past 10 years is consistently growing (see chart). I am not surprised if this brand could exist for another 100 years because our children will pass this unique memory to future generations who may continue to pay for this childhood dream.  We should learn when and what price to buy Walt Disney for trading or investing.

 

Opportunity after Brexit to Invest in Li Ka-Shing Portfolio and other Blue Chips

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The Brexit crisis is a blessing in disguise, many people sell away their best stocks out of fear, creating a rare opportunity to buy blue chips at intermediate low prices. People worry about the status of London as global financial center, many bank stocks are affected. Share price of top UK Bank, Barclays, was falling by 30%, while global major banks such as JP Morgan and Citigroup, were corrected more than 10% in share prices.

Many global blue chip stocks with business in UK, become target for speculation.  The richest man in Asia, Li Ka-Shing, suffers the most.  The #1 stock in Hong Kong (Cheung Kong Hutchison Holdings, HKEX: 0001), is severely corrected is stock price, currently at $82, down by about 1/3 from its peak price of $122 (see chart below).  In the last stock market cycle, an investor could apply Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee to buy Cheung Kong at $35 (25% Optimism) in year 2009, selling at $105 (75% Optimism) with potential gain of 3 times.  Usually it is hard to wait for the giant stocks to fall down, Brexit has helped to correct the long-term Optimism to 46%, getting closer for an investor to consider again.  At the same time, mid-term Optimism of Cheung Kong is down to 0%, an attractive price for trading.

This is a rare opportunity for investor, share price correction is partly due to Brexit, economy slowdown in Hong Kong / China and major correction in Hang Seng Index (HSI). Optimism is a probability calculator, we could estimate the reward to risk ratio, we could safely consider a good stock if we could wait for the giant to fall down.  However, the short term trend is negative due to bearish global stock market sentiments, an investor could apply trading strategy to buy this stock when sentiment is positive again.

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When Optimism Strategies are combined with Fundamental Analysis (value investing & growth investing), Technical Analysis (support / resistance / trends), and Personal Analysis (mind control of greed and fear), it is very powerful when one is able to take the right action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Short) at the right time aligning with own personality.

The unique Optimism Strategy developed by Dr Tee provides a special advantage to know which investment (stock, forex, property, commodity, bond, etc) to buy safely, when to buy, when to sell, including option of long term holding.  So far over 10,000 audience have benefited from Dr Tee high quality free courses to the public.  Take action now to invest in your financial knowledge, starting your journey towards financial freedom.

Brexit has created new stock trading and investing opportunities globally.  At the same time, British Pound is severely corrected, one could apply Forex Optimism to maximize the gains in stock market.   The fear factor has supported the bullish gold price and gold related stocks (eg. gold miners), analysis with Commodity Optimism is needed.  Every crisis is an opportunity, provided one knows how to position.

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Opportunity to Buy Stocks during Level 1 – 4 Crisis

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“Be Greedy when Others are Fearful”, Warren Buffett. 

Many people buy stocks when they feel safe and comfortable, after seeing other people making money, only then they chase after the opportunities, sometimes caught again when market sentiments start to change.  A safe way of buying stock is to wait for crisis, when people worries about the stock market, only then they will sell their best value stocks at discounted price to us.  Every crisis is an opportunity!

There are 4 levels of Crisis:

Level 1 (individual stocks)

– company with falling share price or business, eg. Noble, Keppel Corp, Golden Agri, etc.

Level 2 (sector / industry)

– sector correction, eg. Oil & Gas stocks, Casino stocks, Shipping stocks, etc.

Level 3 (country / region)

– stock market correction, eg. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, China Shanghai Index, etc.

Level 4 (world)

– Major economy slowdown, eg. China

For a falling stock price (Level 1 crisis), it is only worth considering if it is related to sector correction, not mainly because of own business is declining.  A business may go bankrupt but entire sector/industry would nearly always come back after the winter time is over.  A trader would require minimum Level 2 crisis to buy stocks, currently there are many opportunities for Oil & Gas stocks, commodity stocks, retail stocks, casino stocks, shipping stocks, etc.

However, an investor with higher profit target will need to wait for larger scale of crisis, either Level 3 (country / region) or Level 4 (global market).  The golden investing opportunity of life time is to buy stocks which consistently make money in business (even during crisis) but the stock prices drop more than half because people worry the sky will fall down during global financial crisis.

It can be very easy or can be very tough to grab on the trading and opportunities above to buy low during Level 2-4 crisis. If we follow majority of people to trade/invest normally, usually will end up buy high because we feel more comfortable in a bullish market.  If we could follow abnormal strategies like Warren Buffett did in the past, wait patiently for the giant stocks to fall down, buying them at great discount in Global Stock Sales (as if Great Singapore Sales, GSS) when other traders/investors are very worried, the reward could be significant.

 

 

Golden Investing Opportunity is for those Properly Prepared!

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“For those properly prepared, the bear market is not only a calamity but an opportunity.” Sir John Templeton (Investing Master)

The safest time to enter stock market is usually after the correction, main difference for a trader and an investor is on how much discount is needed.  A wise shopper would wait patiently for the Great Singapore Sales to buy desired products in bulk at significant discount.  Similarly, an expert trader or seasoned investor would wait for the sales of desired stocks, when majority of the people are still fearful, only then the share price could fall to an attractive level.

The up and down in stock prices reflect both the business performance and the emotions of traders.  The best time to buy stocks is when people worry the sky will fall down but the same business still makes money consistently each day.  Such golden opportunities of investing only occur during global financial crisis, when majority of global investors are fearful, only then they would let go their most valuable stocks at tremendous discount.

3 major banks in Singapore have fallen more than 20% in share prices over the past 6 months.  Is it time to buy these giant stocks cheaply?  The current global market corrections could be a good opportunity for traders but it is still insufficient for value investors who aim for more than 50% discount of such blue chips, proven historically in each economy cycles.

How long should the investors wait for the giants to fall down?  We don’t have to time the market because the future is unpredictable, both the financial news and political economy could affect the stock markets daily.  However, there is a predictability within the unpredictability, if we could wait patiently, preparing for each opportunities to enter the market, aligning the strategies with own personalities as a trader or an investor.

Optimism Analysis is a probability calculation, both for trading and investing.  We would position ourselves to have higher chance of winning with limited downside, risk-to-reward ratio should be at least 1 to 2, every $1 of risk in investment should potentially bring $2 of return.  Gambling could give special edge to the casino, while Optimism Analysis could give unfair advantage to the traders / investors if ones could wait patiently to be the minority who could gain from the majority.  Golden opportunity is for those who are properly prepared, equipped with the investing knowledge!

 

Strategies for 3 Personalities of Traders and Investors to Profit in Bearish Stock Market

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Many traders and investors lose money in the past few months during global stock market correction.  With STI < 2600 points, there is a strong fear in the market. I have clearly pointed out in the past that greed and fear will continue to influence people to make wrong decisions.  We need to position our investment, choosing stocks with different characters, aligning with our personalities.

Here are suggestions of trading/investing strategies for 3 unique personalities (Short / Mid / Long Terms) to profit from the current bearish stock market with 4 decisions of Buy, Hold, Sell/Short, Wait.

1) Short-Term Trader (buy/sell every few weeks)

Strategy: Short / Wait.

Choose stocks with weak fundamental and bearish trend for the past few months (aligning with major stock indices), short with CFD for stocks at high optimism to profit from the falling market.  Most people only know how to long the market, therefore either lose money or doing nothing in the past few months of bearish market.  Trading could be 2 ways (long / short), as long as the trend is clear, either bullish or bearish markets could be opportunity to make money.

If shorting (requires training) is not a preferred style, those who want to buy low sell high, has to wait for a few more weeks for the global stock market to recover for short term, then long on stocks with positive trend. 

As a short term trader, not every day is a trading day, we need to wait patiently for the best opportunity of the weeks to long or short.  Short term trading is more speculative, reacting quickly to market news, therefore one has to apply Short-term Optimism + Technical Analysis (both price and volume) to have a high probability trading.

 

2) Mid-Term Trader (buy/sell every few months)

Strategy: Wait / Long.

The current market correction (20-30% for some stocks) is attractive for mid term traders who have higher risk tolerance level and looking for higher potential return than short term trading.  Since the short term trend is still bearish, one could wait patiently for the global stock recovery for the next few months, then buy those stock with strong fundamental stocks.

If your stocks are trapped in the stock market, likely now is at low optimism, too late to sell now.  Wait till the next rebound or rally above the support again, target to sell at intermediate high, either to minimize the losses (if bought too high last time) or making some profit.  Apply Mid-term Optimism analysis with integration of Technical and Fundamental Analyses as main strategies.

 

3) Long-Term Investor (buy/sell every few years)

Strategy:  Wait / Long.

Usually long term investors need to wait 5-10 years (typical economy cycle) for global financial crisis to buy strong fundamental stocks safely at amazing low price, future potential could be 50-200% higher.  Current global market correction is still not severe enough, there is room for further correction. Therefore, long term investors should wait patiently, could be next 6-12 months, partly depending on the political economy, ones could enjoy the best performance as the golden investing opportunity could be coming soon.

Apply long-term optimism with fundamental analysis to start prepare yourself for this gift from heaven in near future.  Blue chips will have more than 50% discount in stock prices, most people will get panic but you could profit from fears of others.  However, investor has to accumulate bullets (cash) to have chance to buy low and sell high.