Leveraging on 3 Key Buyers in Stocks (2 Case Studies on DBS & Venture)

Posted on September 4, 2018 Written by
key buyers in stocks
In a practical investment world, sometimes a stock with strong business may stay undervalue for many years, while another stock with little fundamental but exciting rumors or corporate news, could double in share prices over a few days.
 
For high probability stock investing, a smart investor or trader would align the decisions (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting) with 3 key buyers in stocks: investor, traders and speculators.
 
1) Investors (Smart Money)
Smart investors, regardless big funds or retail investors, usually apply Fundamental Analysis to select stocks with strong business (eg. company with wide economic moats with strong and consistent growth in earning, assets, cashflow, dividend, etc), then wait patiently for a reasonable market correction to buy low. Patience is required for this strategy alone. Diversification over a portfolio of stocks is another strategy. Within a short term (weeks) or medium term (months), a strong fundamental stock price may not move up but over a longer term (years), it is more predictable, especially when entry is based on reasonable low price below the value (many types of valuation models are available), protected by a portfolio of stocks, not just 1 stock.
 
Many investors who have holding power, even buy a stock at sky high price, could still be a winner eventually because the investment is protected by a strong business, time will shows its true strength.
 
2) Traders (Mass Market)
Smart traders, either professional or amateur, learning to follow the stream of stock prices to move up or down, not only knowing the entry or exit, also know when to cut loss when the market is going against the original setup. Strong emotional control is required within the timeframe of trading (eg. days, weeks, months) to manage the expected gains and potential risks, surrounded by daily market noises (rumors and news). Successful traders also apply position sizing to reduce risk with smaller size, increase potential gain with larger capital when trend is aligned with initial setup.
 
A smart investor who could integrate trend-following trading into investing, the entry and exit will be smoother, having the best of 2 worlds (fundamental and technical). The probability of success would be higher with leveraging in both investing and trading strategies which form the backbone of stock market.
 
3) Speculators (Losers / Inconsistent Winners)
We should not be a speculator (eg. follow rumor to buy a stock based on “insider news” with 100% life saving) in stocks but we do need their help to push up the price. A speculator may not be a loser all the time, sometimes they could make some quick money as well but they are inconsistent winner, the actions are similar to gambling because a speculator could throw all the capital with past profits into the next speculative stock without any risk management, potentially could lose everything, similar to a gambler who stay in casino for long term.
 
A smart investor not only leverages on traders for entry/exit but also making use of speculators to maximize the return with speculation in stock prices, integrating all 3 key buyers in stocks. For example, an investor or trader may sell high to speculators but trend has started to turn bearish with declining volume at peak prices. In fact, speculation is a key contributor to form low optimism (<25% in a bearish market or stock) and high optimism (>75% in a bullish market or stock). For example, China stock market is relatively more volatile and speculative than other global stock markets, therefore even a strong fundamental stock (eg. national banks) could be speculated with cyclic stock prices. At the same time, when a rumor with negative news comes, a stock price could surge 2 times or drop to less than half of the prices within 1 day.
 
—————————————————————
Integration of Investing, Trading & Speculating
====================================
To maximize the return in a stock with consideration of safety, one may integrate all the 3 key forces in stocks
Investors could help to support a share prices 10% yearly in a gradual way (buy low & hold) while traders could push up another 50% in a few months (Buy High Sell Higher) but speculators could help to multiply any share price (including Bitcoin) by a few times within a few weeks (Buy High & Hope).
 
When DBS (SGX: D05) or Venture (SGX: V03) was less than $15/share, investors start to Buy & Hold. Traders would consider to buy the same 2 stocks, riding the uptrends from $15 to $30/share with support of bullish stock market (STI) last year. Speculators who collected some tips from free investment seminars or listen to some rumors, also start to enter these stocks from more than $25/share, making peanut return of 10%, when trend is reversed since early 2018, still hold on to the same stocks with falling knifes in prices based on “investing” mindset (enter as a trader for small profit, exit as a long term investor to keep paper loss). In fact, a smart investor and trader, regardless buying at less than $15/share with undervalue price or following from $15 to $25/share with uptrend momentum, they could leverage on speculators to sell high after confirmation of ending in momentum after falling down more than 10-20% from the peak prices.
 
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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: , , ,

Value Trap of Financial Ratios: PE, PB and DY

Posted on August 14, 2018 Written by
value traps
Price-Earning Ratio (PE), Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) and Dividend Yield (DY) are 3 common financial ratios which shows relative performance of share prices and business fundamental. A smart stock investor needs to apply these 3 financial ratios with deeper considerations, not just in a generalized way, eg. buying stocks with lower PE, lower PB or higher DY. Do not fall into value trap of stocks for these situations.
 
1) PE (Price Earning Ratio) = Price / Earning
– PE usually prefers a lower number to show undervalue stock with earning approach. In a practical world, usually outperforming stocks have higher PE as traders willing to pay for higher share price relative to earning. Therefore, investing in lower PE stocks should consider whether the lower ratio is a result of lower price, higher earning or both trends at the same time. Be careful of some crisis stocks which have declining earning with significant drop in share prices, resulting in very low PE. Another potential value trap is sudden surge in earning, resulting in very low PE which may not be sustainable.
 
value traps
2) PB (Price to Book Ratio) = Price / Net Asset Value (NAV)
– PB usually prefers a lower number to show undervalue stock with asset approach. In a practical world, usually outperforming stocks have higher PB as traders willing to pay for higher share price relative to asset. Therefore, investing in lower PB stocks should consider whether the lower ratio is a result of lower price, higher NAV or both trends at the same time. Be careful of some undervalue stocks (PB<1) which have declining NAV with significant drop in share prices, resulting in undervalue stock with more discounts each year. Another potential value trap is quality of NAV on balance sheet may be low (not property nor cash).
 
3) DY (Dividend Yield) = Dividend / Price
– DY usually prefers a higher number to show higher rate of return in passive income with dividend approach. In a practical world, usually outperforming stocks have lower DY as traders willing to pay for higher share price relative to dividend payment. Therefore, investing in higher DY stocks should consider whether the lower ratio is a result of lower price, higher dividend or both trends at the same time. Be careful of some high yield dividend stocks (DY>10%) which have declining dividend with significant drop in share prices, resulting in high dividend yield. Another potential value trap is company with no free cashflow but still use past saving to pay for dividend yearly which may not be sustainable.
 
A smart investor should avoid value trap of stocks. Learn from Dr Tee in free 4 hour stock investment course, the right way of applications for PE, PB and DY to look for growth stocks, undervalue stocks and dividend stocks, integrating with Optimism Strategies and Technical Analysis. 
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Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged:

Stock Fair Value – Growth Stock & Undervalue Stock

Posted on August 10, 2018 Written by
There are many ways (eg. FA, TA, PA, Optimism) to define a stock fair value or price, depending on the strategies. From only FA (Fundamental Analysis) perspective, there are 2 main strategies:
 
1) Asset Approach (Undervalue Stocks)
– Buy a stock at price below the good asset value (eg. cash and property), waiting patiently for the recovery of share price, sell when price is above the asset value.
 
Recent acquisition of Wheelock Properties is a good example. The offer of acquisition requires major shareholder to pay about $600 millions cash. If successful, the company has about $900 millions cash of asset (excluding other assets such as properties), therefore the buyer actually would get $900M – $600M = $300M in return. This is similar to shopping in stock market, paying $6 cash and getting $9 cash in return.
 
There are 3 major constraints for this strategy:
– Assets should be high quality, in the form of cash or property
– The investor should be patient as the asset owners are usually for longer term investing, could hold the assets for years or even decades at undervalue share price.
– The company should make money with increasing asset value, otherwise the undervalue asset (eg. Price to Book ratio, PB<1) could become a value trap, buy cheap and get cheaper due to declining business.
2) Cashflow Approach (Growth Stocks)
– Buy a stock with business which assets could generate consistent cashflow each year. If the future total cash value, discounted to current value is more than the current stock price, it is a good buy. The Discounted Cashflow (DCF) model is frequently used to evaluate growth stocks.
 
There are 2 major constraints for this strategy:
– Cashflow generation should be consistent in future for years or even decades, therefore the economic moat should be wide.
– The company could have different growth rates, eg during IPO high-growth stategy, then slower growth, matured business or even declining one day. So, assumption of single growth rate in DCF model may not be reliable.
 
Optimism strategy is easier to evaluate a stock fair value or price, buying at unfair price, selling when overprice. The Optimism Strategies could be integrated with Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA) and Personal Analysis (PA) with Level 1-4 integration (business, sector, country, world) for short term / medium term / long term positioning.
 
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Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market Tagged:

Video on Becoming Warren Buffett – Money is just numbers

Posted on July 27, 2018 Written by

Becoming Warren Buffett
This is a short but powerful 11 min Chinese video (Becoming Warren Buffett) about Warren Buffett strength and weakness. The most touching part is final few minutes on why he decides to donate his fortune accumulated in life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YJx2VkQPHc

For English version, you may search for “Becoming Warren Buffett” (see longer version below with 1hr 28min, thanks to suggestion by a member) but I could not find the same short and sweet version as this Chinese video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PB5krSvFAPY&feature=youtu.be

Warren Buffett initially only focused on buying undervalue stock (Buy Low) but this business partner, Charlie Munger, influenced him to buy good business at fair price (may not low price). The is the key difference of value investing vs growth investing, which Ein55 graduates have learned how to integrated with optimism strategies, including value growth investing to have the best of both worlds.

However, for investing, each of us should establish our own personalized investing styles, there is no need to follow Warren Buffett or Charlier Munger. Berkshire share price dropped by 50% during subprime crisis in 2008-2009, this max drawdown may force many investors out of the stock market, only those with strong faith, applying fundamental analysis, instead of technical analysis, still able to hold through the winter time to be the final winner.

The title of video is an important lesson for everyone: “Money is only numbers”. If we look at frugal lifestyle of Warren Buffett (eg. living in an old house, drive a small car, eating $3 McDonald burger for breakfast, etc), then we can understand money is only an indicator to show his performance in an hobby called investment. This is the same as computer gamers, scoring high from level 1 to 100 is important to their hobbies.

In fact, when we detach making money from investment, just focusing on how to push up the score of investing game with $ amount, our performance could be better.

General public can learn value investing and growth investing from Dr Tee free 4 hour course. Register here: www.ein55.com

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Filed Under: Stock Market, Uncategorized, Value Investing Tagged:

Analysis of 8 Giant Internet Stocks: BAT-FAANG

Posted on July 27, 2018 Written by
Internet Stocks
Ein55 graduates should know how to analyse 8 giant internet stocks when I highlighted during 5-day Ein55 course:
BAT–FAANG:
B = Baidu
A = Alibaba
T = Tencent
F = Facebook
A = Apple
A = Amazon
N = Netflix
G = Google (Alphabet)
 
Alibaba and Facebook are younger giant stocks, more suitable for short term momentum trading, not proven yet for longer term investing.
 
Other 6 internet stocks are proven giant stocks for long term but due to high price growth (faster than earning growth), need to integrate trading into investing when considering for longer term investing. For Facebook, the share price dipped more than 20% in 1 day this week, mainly due to high expectation of global investors on future growth rate. When a company is profitable, it is still in sufficient, it has to exceed the expectation of investors. Stock market is forward looking, when a growth stock or momentum stock is doing well in share prices, supported by past earning, the pressure is higher to score better in business, otherwise the stock prices would be affected. Optimism strategy will be useful to integrate Fundamental Analysis (business world) and Technical Analysis (price world).
 
Among all the 8 internet stocks, Google (Alphabet) is more matured, has the best balance in sustainable price and business growth. An investor may like it but a trader may not.
 
An investor could choose the right type of stock for trading or investing based on own personality:
1) Momentum Trading – Buy High Sell Higher
2) Growth Investing – Buy Low Hold Long Term
3) Cyclic Trading/Investing – Buy Low Sell High
 
Since internet stocks are based on high-end technology which is dynamic in nature, an investor may consider for short term trading or long term investing but may not be suitable for life time investing as there are few technologies could last more than 10 years without strong challenge by newcomers with disruptive technologies.
 
Learn from Dr Tee to position in global and local stocks for trading and investing, aligning with own personalities. Sign up for free 4 hours stock investment course for public in Singapore (meet-up Dr Tee): www.ein55.com
 
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Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged:

Short Term Investing Strategy – Lion Ambush for Opportunity

Posted on July 26, 2018 Written by
Short Term Investing
There are at least 20 types of short term trading and long term investing strategies to make money in stocks (mostly covered in 5 days Ein55 class, including the Optimism + FA + TA + PA strategy):
– Swing/Cyclic Trading, Position Trading, Momentum Trading, Price Action / Breakout Trading, Shorting, Market Cycle / Long Term Cyclic Investing, Short Term Investing, Crisis Investing, Index/ETF Investing, Discounted Asset (Undervalue/net-net) Investing , Growth Investing, Value Growth Investing, Dividend Investing (non REIT), REIT investing, life-time value investing, forex-stock investing, property-stock investing, commodity-stock investing, bond-stock investing, hedging/spread trading, excluding other speculative and intra-day trading methods, etc.
 
Each stock trading and investing method has its own unique application, usually Ein55 graduates would form a dream team portfolio of 10 giant stocks aligned with own personality, integrating a few of these strategies as defenders, mid-fielders, strikers, in additional to cash as goal-keeper.
 
In the current high optimism global stock market (Level 4), for an investor who understands probability, one may adopt wait strategy for global financial crisis to buy low. However, each investor has different level of patience, some could wait only for a few months and lose the patience and confidence. Some could wait for a few years. Therefore patience is one of the unique personality to consider as it affects the timeframe of investing and holding power. This is similar to lion waiting patiently, fighting against hunger to ambush a potential prey. Remember what Charlie Munger (business partner of Warren Buffett) said: “The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.”
 
Short term investing is a nice integration of investing (buy strong fundamental stocks) and trading (entry/exit in short term), suitable for current high optimism stock market, for investor who does not want to miss the possible last rally of bullish stock market. A lion could ambush for a long time but when see the golden opportunity, it will take action to strike for gain. When the prey is running too fast than expected, a lion would give up as well, reserving the energy (capital) for the next prey (stock opportunity).
 
3 local major banks will announce next quarterly results next week. Since the results are likely to be positive (supported by increasing interest rate), market fear on trade war is reduced, recovery of global stock prices over the past 1 week support the confidence in short term for bank stock prices, therefore some have started to go in. Position as a short term investor could leverage the uptrend in bullish bank sector while as flexible as a trader to exit when trend in global and individual stocks become bearish, more than one’s risk tolerance level.
 
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) is a strong fundamental stock, also a strong momentum stock last year but a few corrections this year has affected the momentum because the global investors have higher expectation each quarter, share price dropped more than 20% yesterday when emotion turns bearish suddenly. Venture (SGX: V03) is another example, medium term business performance over the past few years have been excellent but share price has dropped from peak of $29 to $16, nearly 50% correction so far. A short term investor may also integrate optimism (short term to long term) to understand the relative risk and opportunity, not to apply pure value investing nor only on price action.
 
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Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged:

Actions on High Dividend Blue Chip Stocks (Example on Singtel)

Posted on July 21, 2018 Written by
High Dividend Blue Chip
The decision to buy high dividend blue chip stocks (eg. 5-6% dividend yield for Singapore Telco and REITs, etc) depends on 3 main strategies which have to be aligned to 3 personalities.
 
Here is an example of Singtel (SGX: Z74), a strong blue chip in Singapore, current share price at $3.31, falling nearly 25% from $4.30 / share since a few years ago, dividend yield is about 5.3%, Optimism is 28%. Let’s learn to take action (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) based on different unique personality.
 
1) Trader for short term capital gains
– Singtel share price is still a falling knife (although not as sharp as M1 and Starhub which dropped more than 50% in share prices) in short to medium term stock prices, therefore may not yet a good buy for traders who need support of strong uptrend. Singtel share price is affected in short to medium terms by Level 4 (global stock market weakness), Level 3 (weaker Singapore STI index) and Level 2 (bearish Singapore Telco sector, including Starhub and M1), despite the Level 1 business is still strong for Singtel. Although current short term bearish stock market supports shorting (profit from falling price), usually a stable dividend stock with strong fundamental may not be a good choice for shorting.
 
Possible Action: Wait.
 
2) Investor for long term capital gains
– Possible to be a contrarian investor to buy low for Singtel (it was less than 25% Optimism when price is nearly $3, even it may get lower in share price, long term holding would have high chance of winning. The concern is more on short to medium term share prices correction, especially global / US stock market is still at high optimism, there is a potential threat of global financial crisis, it may not be wise to hold a stock unless it is defensive with high growth in nature. Singtel is considered a defensive stock but a slow growth stock.
 
Possible Action: Wait.
 
3) Investor for long term passive income
– Since the objective is to collect dividend, falling in share prices have exchanged for higher yield for Singtel (5.3% currently). Singtel fulfills the criteria of a dividend stock with stable business (despite slow growth) with stable free cashflow and consistent dividend payment. The critical consideration for passive income investor is on the overall return. If one has $100k capital, is it satisfied to get $5.3k annual return (regardless of up and down in share prices)? What if Singtel share price drops further, yield goes up to 8%, will an investor regret of not able to get $8k dividend? So, the decision depends on reward expectation or greediness of an investor. If compares with bank interest rate (1-2%), property rental (2-3%), even current moderate yield of 5-6% dividend stocks are considered better. In general, the spread between yield of blue chip dividend stocks (5-6%) and risk-free investment (eg. 4% for CPF, 2% for Singapore Saving Bond) is narrow. The trick is on capital allocation, maximize the yield by entry in phases. It means if one could not hold the capital with little return in bank deposit, it is fine for investor to consider 5-6% return (ignoring the share price could drop by the same amount in certain week) with partial capital. Bulk of capital may be reserved for higher yield return aligning to the next global financial crisis
 
Possible Action: Buy (partial capital only) or Wait
 
It is clear by now there could be different possible actions for the same stock because the right decision has to be aligned with own personality, eg. holding for short term trading or long long term investing, aiming for capital gains or dividends or both, reward expectation and risk tolerance level, etc.
 
Learn from Dr Tee to learn 10 different stock trading and investing strategies (including high dividend blue chip stocks as a strategy), aligning with 10 unique personalities. 
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Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: , , , , ,

Food Chain of Stock Market (弱肉强食)

Posted on July 18, 2018 Written by
Food chain of stock market
In the nature, there is always a food chain, only those fittest ones could survive in each position. Sharks could swallow small fishes which eat little shrimps.
 
Similarly, in the food chain of stock market, institutional investors (big sharks) could determine the mega direction of stock prices, while retail traders (small fishes) follow the trend of stock prices, left behind speculators (little shrimps) who react to the uncertain daily market. Size is power, usually little shrimps are sacrificed, lose out in speculative stock market, especially when a stock is being manipulated.
 
Blumont in the penny stock crisis a few years ago was a good example. The big sharks (big boys) started to pushed up the stock prices, then small fishes (retail traders) who follow the uptrend could buy high sell higher to make money. Eventually when the share prices were manipulated, pushed up 100 times, it attracted some little shrimps (speculators) who just want to get rich quick but ending up a great loss when the big sharks start to sell all the shares, following by clever small fishes (traders) who follow the trend to get out with some gains or little loss, while the ignorant speculators continue to hold as long term investor when making a loss, ending up losing 99% of stock value, holding until today without clear understanding what went wrong.
 
There are many other similar examples of food chain in stock market (dotcom bubble in year 2000), property market (subprime crisis in year 2008) or even Bitcoin (from rally in year 2017 to crisis in 2018). There are many valuable past lessons which could be learned from food chain of stock market:
 
1) Big funds with smart investors could take the lead in investment markets but could also suffer when there is a global financial crisis which is a disaster in the world of nature. However, smart investors are usually longer term in holding or having strong fundamental business with sufficient past profits to last through the cold winter. The chances of survival is high.
 
2) Retail traders are smaller in size but if one could learn to follow the direction of money flow, sensing the potential market risks, chances of survival is also high but one has to be very flexible, including cutting loss when market direction is reversed.
 
3) Speculators could make a lot of money sometimes but high risk high gain strategy could get burnt eventually. Even if one could make many small profits, one big risk could wipe out all the past earnings when falling into a crisis without proper diversification. The worst is the stock invested (speculated) may have weak fundamental, one could lose all the fortunes with speculative investment which is worst than gambling.
 
A small shrimp may not necessarily be the loser in food chain of stock market. An investor with small capital could outsmart big funds if one could buy much stronger fundamental stocks in a portfolio, able to wait patiently to buy low and sell high (for cyclic stocks) or hold long term (for growth stocks) with market optimism, following traders to ride the trends in stock prices.
 
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Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged:

5 Strategies in Property Stock Investing

Posted on July 11, 2018 Written by
Property Stock Investing
Property stocks are usually highly cyclic as it is subjected to political economy (eg. government cooling measures), project duration (TOP) and economy cycles (demand vs supply). At the same time, property market has gradual growth of about 2-4% over the decades, supporting the growth of property stocks. More importantly, passive incomes through dividend from property rental is a bonus.
 
There are 5 main strategies in Property Stock Investing or Trading:
1) Cyclic Investing (Buy Low Sell High)
– Suitable for cyclic property stocks, especially for penny stocks or small cap stocks which are more volatile. The capital gains could be tremendous.
 
2) Dividend Investing (Buy Low & Hold Long Term)
– Suitable for passive income through regular dividend payment, similar to landlord of a property, collecting monthly rental consistently despite the up and down in property price. The key is to buy low to maximize the dividend yield (for property stocks) or rental yield (for property).
 
3) Growth Investing (Buy Low & Hold Long Term)
– Suitable for growth property stocks, usually are blue chips with strong fundamentals to support the long term growth.
 
4) Momentum Trading (Buy High Sell Higher)
– Suitable for short term trading of property stocks during bullish economy but full compliance of exit strategy is required when uptrend has ended.
 
5) Undervalue Investing (Buy Cheap Sell expensive)
– Suitable for value investor who view property stocks as asset, buying at price much below the net asset value, selling when price is above valuation in future. Patience is required for this conservative strategy.
 
For all the 5 strategies in property stock investing to perform well, the common requirement is to buy only giant property stock which has strong fundamental.
 
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Filed Under: Property Market, Stock Market Tagged:

4 Positions of Economy vs Stock Market

Posted on July 4, 2018 Written by
Economy (master) and stock market (dog) is similar to master walks the dog, now dog is behind the master who is walking faster. When both master and dog are slow, then it will be a concern, regardless who is ahead
 
There are 2 relative positions (behind/ahead) with 2 overall paces (fast/slow) with 4 scenarios of economy vs stock market:
(1) Bullish market – master (economy) could be ahead/behind stock (dog), while both are walking at faster rate
 
(2) Bearish market – master (economy) could be ahead/behind stock (dog), while both are walking at slower rateeconomt
 
Now could be scenario (1) bull market with economy ahead of stock market but if the dog is too slow until the master is also slowed down, it could become scenario (2), turning from bullish to bearish.
 
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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Stock Market Tagged:
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