Hidden Stock Opportunities in New Year of Dragon 2024 for Both Short Term Traders and Long Term Investors (卧虎藏龙)

Posted on February 1, 2024 Written by

As highlighted over 1 year ago, US inflation falling from the peak below the interest rate (5+%) was a golden cross for US stock market. Indeed, US stocks become very bullish, S&P500 achieving new high >5000 points recently, ideal for short term traders. At the same time, due to economy slowdown, both China and Hong Kong stock markets are in crisis, providing a rare opportunity for long term investors.

In the New Year of Dragon 2024, US inflation continues to decline (currently around 3+%) while market expecting the Fed would start to cut interest rates. Lower interest rate with strong economy would help to push up the bullish US stock market further as funds may move from bank deposits to stock market for quicker return. However, US stock market is more suitable for short term trading to Buy High Sell Higher (momentum trading / swing trading) until it reaches high Optimism level with a black swan one day. Technology giant stocks (not limited to AI) may gain more momentum with lower borrowing cost, aiming for Ver 2.0 technology bubble (Ver 1.0 was Year 2000 dotcom bubble). Bubble is friend for traders with condition that one has to know when to exit, not to hold as a long term investor when market may crash one day with >50% potential drawdown.

Usually global stock markets are aligned at country level to go up and down together, eg Japan, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, etc, are following US to higher Optimism level. However, due to political economy difference in each country, Asian stock market performs relatively weaker, especially for China and Hong Kong, suffering economy slowdown with weak investment markets (stock, bond, property, etc). This creates a golden opportunity for long term investor to Buy Low Sell High with condition that the stock portfolio is diversified over 10-20 giant stocks with strong businesses to survive and recover from stock crisis. Even for China / Hong Kong stocks at very attractive prices, entry requires consideration of 3 unique C.E.T. personalities:

1) C = Contrarian Investors (allows buying low with bearish prices),
2) E = Early Investors (entering with potential light at the end of tunnel, eg. market awaits massive stimulus plan from China),
3) T = Trend Investors (wait for stronger confirmation for bear transits into early bull).

At the same time, other stock exchanges (eg. Singapore and Malaysia, etc) are at moderate Optimism levels, stagnant with mixed performance. Careful selection of giant stocks would be a better choice than investing indices / ETF.

So, your stock performance in New Year 2024 may be like a “Dragon” or “Snake”, depending on your choice (eg. US stocks for short term trading, Asian stocks for long term investing) with alignment to your unique personality (short term, mid term, long term) and style of investing (growth, cyclic, dividend, undervalue, momentum, swing, etc).

It is timely now to review own stock portfolio, making decisions (Buy / Hold / Sell / Wait / Shorting) ahead of majority.
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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar):  www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: , ,

Short-term or Long-term Investing? Choose the One that Works for You!

Posted on July 10, 2017 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 071 - image - Long Term or Short Term (V2)

As much as I love investing, I believe that most of us invest with a similar goal in mind, i.e. to make money, to get our money to work for us, and to attain financial freedom. However, considering how different investors can be when it comes to styles and personalities, there is really no one rule that applies to all. Perhaps, that also explains why the stock market is so confusing and unpredictable in the first place.

There is no way to know what every single person thinks, but we can make our lives easier by knowing our own investing personalities and what floats our boats. Boiling down to the basics, you need to know whether you are a short-term trader or a long-term investor (though in real life, many of us are a mix of both).

 

Short-term Trading

You will like short-term trading if:

  • You are comfortable with keeping an investment for only a short period of a few weeks, or even days.
  • Your goal is to make quick bucks to reach a shorter-term goal, e.g. purchasing a car, funding a vacation, etc.
  • You are not a fan of doing extensive fundamental research on the businesses that you have invested in, but you are able/ willing to commit a significant amount of time to trading and checking stocks.
  • You are ok with taking risks and dealing with profits and losses due to short-term price fluctuations.
  • You can accept high transaction costs as a result of frequent trades, which reduces your income in a bigger proportion as compared to long-term investing.

 

Misperceptions of Short-term Trading

  1. Short-term trading does not require patience.

Truth: Even for a short-term trader, not every day is a trading day. We need to wait patiently for the best opportunity to long or short.

 

  1. Short-term trading is always about buying low then selling high.

Truth: Short-selling (profit from falling in share prices) is equally if not more important. Most people only know how to long the market, and therefore they lose money or end up doing nothing when the market is bearish.

Currently, there is still upside in the last phase of the bull market for short-term traders, possible to buy high sell higher but shorter term position should follow shorter term market signals.

In my free 4hr investment course, I will share with you high-probability trading techniques for short-term traders to profit from the rising and falling stock market.

 

  1. There is no need to read up on anything if I am trading short-term.

Truth: Short-term trading, being more speculative and volatile in nature, requires one to react quickly to market news and sentiments. In order to profit in both bearish and bullish markets, one would still need to read up to understand the impact of market-changing factors such as the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike, Donald Trump’s national policies, oil & gas crises, and global quantitative easing (QE), etc. It is important to know the impact of global economy on stock market.

 

Long Term Investing

On the other hand, you may like long-term investing if

  • You are okay with holding an investment for a long period of time, and buy or sell only once every few years.
  • You have a longer-term goal in mind, e.g. building resources for your retirement, and you are expecting your investment to increase in value over the long run, and/or also provide income in the form of dividends.
  • You prefer fundamental analysis to technical analysis.
  • You like value investing.

 

Misperceptions of Long-term Investing

  1. You do not have to hold a lot of cash if you are buying at a discount.

Truth: Even if you have met the “golden opportunity” where blue chips have more than a 50 percent discount in stock prices, you as an investor have to accumulate bullets (cash) to be able to make substantial profits when you buy low and sell high.

 

  1. If you are investing long-term, you can just sit on your stocks and not care about them for a long time.

Truth: While it may be true that you do not have to react to stock market changes immediately like short-term traders do, you still need to review and reevaluate your stock portfolio from time to time. Even in long-term investing, you would need to do spring cleaning regularly, classifying your stocks into different categories and treat them differently, for e.g. fundamentally-strong stocks for long-term holding, cyclical stocks to sell at a high, and junk stocks to sell at the right time, etc.

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Time flies, and before we realise it, half of 2017 has already passed. On a global level, stock markets have performed superbly for 1H2017, rewarding investors with attractive returns that have not been seen for quite a few years. How sustainable is the stock market rally then? Will there be a market correction?  Take actions now to position yourself for investment.

 

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Stock Market Tagged: ,

3 Right Ways of Long Term Investing (Buy & Hold)

Posted on March 8, 2017 Written by

Ein55 Newsletter No 060 - 2017-03-08 - buy & hold

Long term investing does not guarantee success. Why investors such as Warren Buffett could make a lot of fortune with simple buy & hold strategy but some investors become poorer with investing over the long term?

“Buy stocks and hold for long term” is not sufficient.

Here are 3 right ways of Long Term Investing, depending on the expertise level:

 

1) Beginner Investors

“Buy good stocks and hold for long term.”

By adding a condition of “good” stocks, the long term investing strategy becomes 10X stronger because it has additional edge from FA (Fundamental Analysis) with strong business.

Even one does not know how to select good stocks, a no-brainer way of investing is to buy stock indices of growing economies, eg. S&P 500, Dow Jones Index, China A50, Hang Seng Index, or even Singapore STI.  This provides sufficient diversification with strong country (Level 3 giant) as protection of investment.

Property in certain countries (big cities, limited land, growing populations), by default is a giant. Therefore even if one does not know how to choose property, majority of property investors could make money if having the holding power more than 1 decade.

Stock is different, careful selection of strong business is critical. Weak stocks could make us poorer with time, while giant stocks will grow stronger with holding for long term.

This group of investors need to master strategy to select giant stocks.

 

2) Intermediate Investors

“Buy good stocks at lousy price and hold for long term”

On top of the Strategy #1, if one could integrate the TA (Technical Analysis) weapon to buy low, only then hold for long term, this will help to maximize the capital gains.

One could integrate trading (eg. trend following) into investing, after buy low, there is no need to sell high. After the stocks have recovered from correction during market crisis, the capital gains will help to strengthen the confidence to hold for long term.

This group of investors need to master strategy to buy low for giant stocks.

 

3) Advanced Investors

“Buy good stocks at lousy price and hold for long term, aligning to own personality”

The risk of “Beginner and Intermediate Investors” is to overcome own’s fear during global financial crisis because they may have capital loss if enter the investment market at a wrong time.  Warren Buffett’s Berkshire share price drops more than 50% in subprime crisis 2008-2009 but he could overcome the crisis because he has a portfolio of strong giant stocks. More importantly, this buy & hold strategy is aligned to his personality.  For others who blindly copy and paste this strategy, it may not work because there is a mismatch with personality (risk tolerance level, emotional control, investment knowledge level, etc)

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In short, investing could be very simple (buy & then do nothing, holding for life), it could also very complicated if one does not have the right weapons of (Optimism = FA + TA + PA).  Before we envy of those simple investment methods, we should check if it is suitable for us.

Filed Under: Value Investing Tagged: ,