Wait for Durian to Drop in Stock Crisis 榴莲忘返

Posted on April 2, 2020 Written by
durian stock crisis

Investing in global stock crisis is similar to wait for durian to fall (best if other people’s durian tree). It is fine to wait for durians to drop, eg. DBS Bank (SGX: D05) below $10/share or giant stocks below low optimism level, but if there is a small durian (eg. DBS below $15/share) comfortable to oneself along the way (so low that everyone could reach), may take one first, no need to wait for the biggest durian in the world as luck may not be there all the time (eg. buying at the lowest price).

This way, at least when the durian waiting game is over (Coronavirus fear), each investor has a gift from heaven for investment during crisis.

DBS Bank (SGX: D05) below $10/share or OCBC Bank (SGX: O39) below $5/share is as if durian drops down, some “abnormal” contrarian investors would start to enter. Every 10+ years, this DBS durian only has chance to drop, currently not ripe yet. Other giant stocks fruits (may not as tasty as durian) start to ripe already, hanging low, waiting for investors to pluck with a low price. But some worry the price of future durians may drop further, so still waiting for lower price. Question is durian may stop to drop one day, no one know when is the day, so need to take calculated risk at certain point, otherwise need to accept possibility of missing the opportunity boat one day.

Usually summer time around Jun-Aug is durian season here, perhaps implying more opportunities then. Coronavirus may end by summer for stock market to recover or pandemic may continue longer to cause global financial crisis. Stock investment is similar to wait for durian, must eventually take action (Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Shorting), otherwise one may be still empty handed after the season is over (榴莲忘返).

Cash is king when used at the right time. The key is to define the “right time” for everyone, aligned to own personality.

1) Counter-trend investors (buy low sell high) may start to take action in bearish stock market below low optimism < 25%.

2) Life-time investors (buy low & hold for life time) may want to wait for Level 3-4 (eg US) to fall to low optimism or even until global financial crisis happens (eg GDP declines over 10% in many countries).

3) Trend-follower traders or investors may wait until the durian feast is over, there will be still leftover due to over supply, not in a hurry to join the bearish stock market, wait for the trend to reverse first before long the market. Some traders who could not wait till summer, may want to collect “junk” durian by selling to others (shorting at junk stocks in bear market) to make profit.

Despite many global giant stocks are at low optimism (not yet for DBS), but Levels 3 (country, eg. US) and Level 4 (world) stock market are not yet at low optimism (but trending down again this week), so it is prudent to save silver bullets but need to have a plan to trigger it, so that will get something when stock hunting game is over.

Remember to ensure durian tree will not fall first (business fundamental is strong, won’t go bankrupt easily) during the thunder storm (economic crisis), otherwise no more durian in future, investor may also get injure as buy low for weak fundamental stock may get lower or get zero eventually.

So, which type of durian are you waiting to drop? D24 (DBS) or Mao Shan Wang or any global giant durian?

There are 30 Banking & Finance Stocks in Singapore including DBS Bank (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
AMTD IB OV (SGX: HKB), B&M Hldg (SGX: CJN), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Edition (SGX: 5HG), G K Goh (SGX: G41), Global Investment (SGX: B73), Great Eastern (SGX: G07), Hong Leong Finance (SGX: S41), Hotung Investment (SGX: BLS), IFAST Corporation (SGX: AIY), IFS Capital (SGX: I49), Intraco (SGX: I06), Maxi-Cash Finance (SGX: 5UF), MoneyMax Finance (SGX: 5WJ), Net Pacific Finance (SGX: 5QY), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), Pacific Century (SGX: P15), Prudential USD (SGX: K6S), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), SHS (SGX: 566), Sing Investments & Finance (SGX: S35), Singapore Reinsurance (SGX: S49), Singapura Finance (SGX: S23), TIH (SGX: T55), Uni-Asia Group (SGX: CHJ), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOB-KAY HIAN HOLDINGS (SGX: U10), UOI (SGX: U13), ValueMax (SGX: T6I), Vibrant Group (SGX: BIP).

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Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: , , , , , , ,

Dr Tee Video Education: Global Stock Crisis Investing

Posted on March 21, 2020 Written by
Global Stock Crisis Investing

In this Dr Tee video education (Global Stock Crisis Investing), you will learn:

1) Understand how the 2 black swans crashed the global stock market in last 1 month

2) Compare global stock market losses: US, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Germany.

3) Technical Analysis of Coronavirus by country with stage of virus life cycle and estimated ending period.

4) Position in two possible scenarios for global stock market before summer 2020 (Jun-July).

5) Investment clock (When to Buy / Sell) with Optimism Strategies (long term / mid term / short term) for 5 global stock markets: World, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Here is English Version of Ein55 Video Course (Chinese version is available as Dr Tee is bilingual):

This crisis investing strategy may be applied to 30 Singapore STI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Singtel (SGX: Z74), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Jardine Strategic Holdings JSH (SGX: J37), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), City Development (SGX: C09), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX: C61U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), SATS (SGX: S58), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52).

This powerful strategy can be extended to global giant stocks including 30 Malaysia Bursa KLCI index component stocks (investor has to focus only on giant stocks for investing):
CIMB (Bursa: 1023) CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD, DIALOG (Bursa: 7277) DIALOG GROUP BERHAD, DIGI (Bursa: 6947) DIGI.COM BERHAD, GENM (Bursa: 4715) GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD, GENTING (Bursa: 3182) GENTING BERHAD, HAPSENG (Bursa: 3034) HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BERHAD, HARTA (Bursa: 5168) HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BERHAD, HLBANK (Bursa: 5819) HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD, HLFG (Bursa: 1082) HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BERHAD, IHH (Bursa: 5225) IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD, IOICORP (1961) IOI CORPORATION BERHAD, KLCC (Bursa: 5235SS) KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BERHAD, KLK (Bursa: 2445) KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD, MAXIS (Bursa: 6012) MAXIS BERHAD, MAYBANK (Bursa: 1155) MALAYAN BANKING BERHAD, MISC (Bursa: 3816) MISC BERHAD, NESTLE (Bursa: 4707) NESTLE MALAYSIA BERHAD, PBBANK (Bursa: 1295) PUBLIC BANK BERHAD, PCHEM (Bursa: 5183) PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BERHAD, PETDAG (Bursa: 5681) PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD, PETGAS (Bursa: 6033) PETRONAS GAS BERHAD, PMETAL (Bursa: 8869) PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD, PPB (Bursa: 4065) PPB GROUP BERHAD, RHBBANK (Bursa: 1066) RHB BANK BERHAD, SIME (Bursa: 4197) SIME DARBY BERHAD, SIMEPLT (Bursa: 5285) SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD, TENAGA (Bursa: 5347) TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TM (Bursa: 4863) TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD, TOPGLOV (7113) TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.

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There are over 1500 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar.

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Market Cycle Investing, Market Outlook, Personal Analysis, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Trading Tagged: , ,

Crisis Stock Investing – Buy Low Sell High (Not Buy Low Sell Lower)

Posted on July 5, 2018 Written by
Crisis Stock Investing
Crisis stock investing is attractive to buy low sell high with potential huge capital gains when share prices recover one day. Here are a few general rules to follow:
 
1) Capital allocation less than 10% (striker position in a portfolio) as the investment is higher risk to exchange for higher potential gains.
 
2) Before Buy Low, ensure the stock is still a giant stock with reasonable fundamental (accepting the facts business could decline over the past few years due to crisis), eg positive earning or cashflow, despite in declining mode.
 
3) Ensure it is a higher level induced crisis, eg. sector correction (L2), country crisis (L3) or global financial crisis (L4). If it is only a business crisis for individual stock (L1) while the competitors are healthy, do not buy low as the company could bankrupt eventually, one could lose all the investment this way. Even a stock is traded at 1 cent per share (previous high could be $1), it is still expensive as it could drop to $0 value or price.
 
For Ein55 graduate, I have posted the details of Ein55 strategies (quantitative) for crisis investing in Ein55 graduate web forum under thread of “investing strategies” – “Crisis Investing Strategies”, specifically on What to Buy & When to Buy.
 
For general public, you could learn more about crisis investing at Levels 1-4 from Dr Tee free course, register here.
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Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged:

Crisis Stock Investing with 4 Qualities of Low Optimism Stocks

Posted on April 26, 2018 Written by

crisis stock investing

Crisis stock investing is investing in cyclic giant stocks, ideal for Buy Low Sell High investing strategy.  Usually crisis may happen at business (Level 1, company losing money), sector (Level 2, bearish sector), country (Level 3, recession) or global (Level 4, financial crisis), creating different degrees of fear in the stock market, resulting in fall of share prices.  Subsequently, when the market fear turns into greed, these crisis stocks may become uptrend momentum stocks, ideal for selling high.

There are 4 different qualities of crisis stocks with long term low optimism. An investor has to carefully identify the nature of crisis stock investing, understanding how the falling in share prices are induced.

1) Low Quality Low Optimism (L1 Crisis Stock Investing)

Long term optimism of stock is low, driven by decline in L1 business but L2-L4 are fine.  Noble Group could be an example. Without consideration of sustainable business, pure strategy of Buy Low may result in Get Lower in share prices, which is a common pitfall for Technical Analysis.  Both Fundamental Analysis (FA) and Technical Analysis (TA) should be integrated with Optimism Strategies with consideration of Personal Analysis (PA)

2) Average Quality Low Optimism (L2 Crisis Stock Investing)

Long term optimism of stock is low, driven by decline in L1 business & L2 (sector), while L3-L4 are fine. Examples include oil & gas crisis stocks in the last 1 year, casino crisis stocks 2 years ago, etc.  It happens during the sector rotation which the sector market cycle may not align with the country/global economy cycle.  If the sector is not a sunset industry, usually it would recover again as there is unique demand vs supply within each sector for investment.

3) High Quality Low Optimism (L3/L4 Crisis Stock Investing)

Long term optimism of stock is low, driven by decline in L1-L4 (business/sector/country/global financial crisis). More than 50% global cyclic giant stocks during global financial crisis would be affected in both business (drop in earning or even losing money) and share prices (L1-L4 from individual stock to global stock indices).  Since the market fear at L3/L4 may not last long (global political leaders would take actions by then to save the whole world), the downside of global stock market is limited but an investor needs to have sufficient holding power through the cold winter time of global financial crisis.  For example, many cyclic giant bank stocks may behave this way.

4) Excellent Quality Low Optimism (L4 Crisis Stock Investing with strong L1 Business)

Long term optimism of stock is low, driven by decline in L2-L4 (sector/country/global financial crisis) but L1 business is fine. Less than 10% global growth giant stocks during global financial crisis could still be profitable or even growing in business while the share prices falling relatively less (defensive in nature) than the average in global stock market.  In fact, defensive growth giant stocks are suitable for Buy Low & Hold for long term investing, sell is an optional strategy.

The safest time to buy a giant stock is when everyone is afraid the sky will fall down while the business is still operating normally with consistent performance. This could be a rare opportunity to buy during a crisis but many people are too normal, do not know how to take this advantage to truly buy low sell high.

A smart investor may not need to consider only crisis stock investing.  There are other strategies such as growth stocks, dividend stocks, undervalue stocks and momentum stocks, etc, may be integrated to form a balance stock investment portfolio.

Learn from Dr Tee through high-quality free stock investment courses.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: , ,
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