US Interest Rate Hike to 2.25%

US interest rate hikeUS consistently increases the interest rate, latest adjustment is to 2-2.25%. Despite the US and global economy are still bullish, this implies less time remaining for the bull market.

When US interest rate exceeds 3% and/or when 10 years US bond yield is over 4%, investor has to be very careful, especially over the next 12 months for possible black swan which could trigger the next major financial crisis.

It does not mean crisis will come immediately when interest rate is over 3%. It is based on probability approach. Despite higher interest rate now, since stock and property markets are still bullish in US, people are not concerned as they could use higher salary (employee market, currently 3.9% unemployment rate in US), higher profit from stocks/properties to pay for higher inflation or interest/mortgage rates.

A safer way is short term trading/investing, one could leverage on the last phase of bullish market (at least for US) and also prevent the big bear when trend is reversed. However, buy and sell in shorter term may not be suitable for everyone, especially in a volatile market (when VIX is over 20-30 points).

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