market cycle investing Archives

Download Dr Tee Latest eBooks: Market Outlook 2023 & Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Posted on November 3, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Fresh from Oven: Download the latest 2 FREE high-quality stock investment eBooks by Dr Tee on (1) “Global Market Outlook 2023”, covering comprehensive investment topics: Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond and Political Economy & (2) “Dream Team Portfolio 2023” with Top 10 global stocks for capital gains and passive incomes. Past readers have benefited both stock investment eBooks, learning simple and useful strategies to position in current global stock markets.

Are you worried about the current global stock market with potential black swans such as high inflation, interest rate hike, Russia-Ukraine War, supply chain disruptions and endless COVID19 cases which contribute to declining stock prices? Every crisis is an opportunity for investing. You will learn useful methods step by step from 2 valuable FREE stock investment eBook by Dr Tee which work in stock market. Take action now to surprise yourself!

Dr Tee 刚完成2本投资秘籍。《环球市场展望2023》书内覆盖很多在环球主要市场 (美国、新加坡、香港、中国、欧洲) 的投资议题及提供解决方法。《10大梦幻股票2023》书则分享了各种实用投资策略于10大高潜能股票。很多读者已经从Dr Tee过去发表的股票投资书中受惠，大家可在Dr Tee 的最新报告中洞悉环球市场目前面对的风险及机遇。

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #1):
Global Stock Market Outlook 2023

Mass Market Sentiment Survey （大众市场情绪调查）
Review of Global Stock Markets （环球股市回顾）
US Market Outlook （美国市场展望）
Regional Market Outlook (Europe, China, Hong Kong) （区域市场展望）
Singapore Market Outlook (Stock & Property) （新加坡市场展望）
Conclusions and Recommendations （总结及建议）

Table of Contents (FREE Stock Investment eBook #2):
Top 10 Global Stocks – Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Personalized Stock Investment Portfolio （个人化股票投资组合）
Ein55 Global Top 10 Stocks （10大全球高潜能股票）
Summary of Actions （投资方向总结）

Download Dr Tee 2 eBooks Here: http://eepurl.com/P8i61

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There are over 2000 giant stocks in the world based on Dr Tee criteria, choice of 10 Dream Team giant stocks have to align with one’s unique personality, eg. for shorter term trading (eg. momentum or swing trading) or longer term investing (cyclic investing, undervalue investing or growth investing). Readers should not just “copy and paste” any stock (What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell) as successful action taking requires deeper consideration (LOFTP strategies – Level / Optimism / Fundamental / Technical / Personal Analysis) which you could learn further from Dr Tee Free 4-hr Webinar.

Drop by Dr Tee free 4hr webinar (learning at comfort of home with Zoom) to learn how to position in global giant stocks during COVID-19 stock crisis with 10 unique stock investing strategies, knowing What to Buy, When to Buy/Sell.

Zoom will be started 30 min before event, bonus talk (Q&A on any investment topics from readers) for early birds. There are many topics we will cover in this 4hr webinar, Dr Tee can have more time for Q&A if you could stay later after the webinar, you could ask on any global and local stocks including but not limited to 30 STI component stocks:

Ascendas Reit (SGX: A17U), CapitaLand (SGX: C31), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), City Development (SGX: C09), ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52), Dairy Farm International (SGX: D01), DBS Bank (SGX: D05), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU), Genting Singapore (SGX: G13), Hongkong Land (SGX: H78), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX: C07), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Keppel DC Reit (SGX: AJBU), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U), OCBC Bank (SGX: O39), SATS (SGX: S58), Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96), Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Singtel (SGX: Z74), ST Engineering (SGX: S63), Thai Beverage (SGX: Y92), UOB Bank (SGX: U11), UOL (SGX: U14), Venture Corporation (SGX: V03), Wilmar International (SGX: F34), YZJ Shipbldg SGD (SGX: BS6).

Dr Tee will cover over 20 case studies, Singapore giant stocks, eg. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68), Keppel Corp (SGX: BN4), Top Glove (SGX: BVA), Jardine Matheson Holdings JMH (SGX: J36), Vicom (SGX: WJP) and many others, Malaysia giant stocks, Hong Kong giant stocks and US giant stocks, both long term investing and short term trading.

There are limited tickets left for this 4hr free webinar, please ensure 100% you could join when register: www.ein55.com

View quick preview video below, Dr Tee will introduce 10 key stock investment strategies (股票投资十招) to be learned in 4hr free stock webinar:

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Bond Market, Commodity Market, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Property Market, Stock Market Tagged: market cycle investing, market outlook, stock market crisis

Stock Market Sentiment Investing Strategy with Fear and Greed of Black Swans (多数服从少数)

Posted on March 18, 2022 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Global investors and traders are worrying about the current stock market fears which may become the next Black Swan: Russia / Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rate hike, resulting in the largest dip in US stock market (13% for S&P500, 20% for NASDAQ) since COVID19 crisis. At the same time, China and Hong Kong suffer severe waves of COVID19, resulting in significant stock market correction, especially for technology stocks (eg. ATM stocks of Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan which contribute to 1/3 of Hang Seng Index). However, at the most fearful time, there is always a strong rebound in stock prices. Is it time to Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait or Shorting?

Before sharing any personal views on current stock market, Dr Tee often likes to begin with a unique “Stock Market Sentiment” Strategy with a survey for my investing workshop audience or readers:

“What do you think of the Singapore stock market trend for the next 1 year?”
A = Bear Market (STI < 10%) B = Flat Market (STI within +/- 10%) C = Bull Market (STI > 10%)

Please make your choice before continue reading further. This is an important move because you will be part of “Dr Tee Indicator” on future market trend.

The participants with diversified background and experience representing the mass market will cast their votes. Here is the latest statistics (see Figure above) based on recent survey: Bear Market (6%), Flat Market (40%), Bull Market (54%). Please compare your choice with this overall distribution on market outlook.

This unique Dr Tee Personal Indicator is making use of the psychological weaknesses in traders/investors who usually buy high (when greedy) and sell low (when fearful). Therefore, the recommendation of investing calls of buy / sell / hold, is against the mainstream view:
• Buy: when bear market view > 75%
• Sell: when bull market view > 75%
• Hold: when flat market view > 25% (current market)

The current majority market view (40% flat market & 54% bull market) aligns well with the current market trend in Singapore as Straits Times Index (STI) has been recovering gradually from low of 2233 points during COVID-19 pandemic, trading at fair price of 3337 points with uptrend potential with support of growing economy. The bearish view is relatively low (6%, less than 50% neutral line), matching the declining fear during Covid-19 stock crisis with recovery of Singapore and Asian stock markets.

This Ein55 Personal Indicator has monitored the stock market regularly since Nov 2011, successfully predicting a golden entry point to stock market after the US credit crisis in late 2011 with >75% bearish views. Unfortunately, during the next worst time of Mar 2020 pandemic, Dr Tee could not meet up with audience, therefore missing another pessimistic point (>75% bearish views) in this survey but investors won’t miss the investing opportunity with Optimism Strategy (1 of Dr Tee 55 investing styles). This unique investing methodology is consistent with the famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy”, but in a measurable form of investors emotions.

Response from each stock market (eg. Singapore, US, Hong Kong / China, Malaysia, etc) could be different as it greed and fear could be country or even sector (eg. technology vs value stocks) dependent as their Ein55 Optimism levels are different. If similar survey is conducted in Hong Kong recently, over 75% local investors or traders likely will have bearish views. However, no one could buy at the lowest point (if yes, then it is luck), therefore trend analysis on reversal pattern is required before Buy Low.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism, Market Outlook, Stock Market, Uncategorized Tagged: global financial crisis, market cycle investing, market outlook

3 Golden Rules of Stock Investment (金玉良言)

Posted on July 3, 2021 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

“Bull markets are born on PESSIMISM, grow on SKEPTICISM, mature on OPTIMISM and die on EUPHORIA.”, this is the Best Golden Rule of Sir John Templeton, founder of famous Templeton Funds, indicating management of human emotions is key for success in investment.

This is aligned with another famous saying by Warren Buffett: “Be Greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy“, which could be summarized simply as the universal law of “Buy Low Sell High“.

Everyone would agree the above 3 Golden Rules to make money in investment, but they are qualitative in nature (eg. how low is low, how high is high). In the practical investment world, how to do it exactly, would need a quantitative method such as Dr Tee “Ein55 Optimism” to Buy Low (when Optimism < 25%) and Sell High (when Optimism > 75%).

Pandemic year 2020 was “pessimistic” (Ein55 Optimism < 25%) based on Dr Tee criteria, therefore “Bull market was born’. Year 2021 is pandemic recovery with different views between bullish and bearish viewers, therefore stock market “grow on skepticism” (moderate Ein55 Optimism 40%-60%, near to fair value). One day, stock market may “mature on optimism” or “die on euphoria” when the stock market is over-heated (Ein55 Optimism > 75%-100%).

This is a natural emotional cycle which commonly reflected as stock market or economic cycle every 5 to 10+ years. Mastery of market cycle could help an investor maximizing the capital gains during a bull run and minimizing the market risks during a global financial crisis.

However, market cycle investing (eg. with Ein55 Optimism Method) has to be integrated with other dimensions of investment, eg. Fundamental Analysis (FA at business level), Economic Analysis (FA at country level), Technical Analysis (TA of share prices), Level Analysis (LA of Level 1 – stock, Level 2 – sector, Level 3 – country, Level 4 – world), Personal Analysis (PA to know own unique personality to define suitable style of investing or trading), etc.

If not, “Buy Low” may “Get Lower”, especially if an investor blindly invests in a weak fundamental stock with bearish price trend during a global financial crisis. Interested learners may refer to earlier hundreds of educational articles by Dr Tee on applications of LOFTP Analysis strategies on various global giant stocks.

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Tonight (2 July 2021) is key for US stock market to reflect emotions for non-farm payroll (jobs excluding farming, local gov and non-profit work) of June 2021, last trading day before 4th of July, US Independence Day celebration.

US non-farm payroll is another way to measure job market, has been on increasing trend during pandemic recovery. The key is how far the increment from the consensus (eg. 720k more jobs expected before the official report today). The Fed focuses mainly on job market and inflation to adjust its economic policies. More jobs created could add fuel to spending, thus stimulate the economy further, supporting the stock market indirectly in longer run.

If the actual number is too good (people may worry higher interest rate to cope with higher inflation due to potential over-heated economy) or too weak (people may worry economy is still weak) may give surprised market responses, best compromised results could be mild growth (slightly lower or higher than expectation) within the tolerances of both bull and bear viewers.

US Non-farm payroll for month of June 2021 with additional new jobs (850k) is higher than expected (720k) but unemployment rate (5.9%) is slightly higher than May 2021 (5.8%). So, gradual growth of economy or even mixed performance is probably the most ideal market condition for mass market, both bullish viewers (who worry about lagging economy) and bearish viewers (who worry about higher inflation or interest rate) are able to accept it.

Based on the market opening so far today (2 July 2021) with mild bullish US stock market, US job market has mixed performance which is ideal to balance between bull and bear viewer, supporting both S&P500 and Nasdaq indices to another new historical high tonight. Dow Jones (mainly 30 blue chip stocks) may also achieve a new high over the next few weeks.

At the same time, Asian stock markets (Singapore STI, Malaysia KLCI, Hong Kong HSI, China SSEC, etc) are stagnant recently after the rally in Q1 2021. Asian stock markets smaller in sizes, mainly follow US or global trends for stock market or economy. Pandemic recovery is getting faster with global vaccination, the likely stronger economy would help to support the growth of global stock markets in the next few years.

Last year, economy and stock market was diverged, stock market (forward looking, expecting pandemic would end sooner or later) was recovering ahead of economy. This year, economy starts to catch up with stock market (becoming slower growth as early investors have make over 50% gains in the last 1 year). Moving forward, economy and stock market would be more “normal” to move in similar pace, eg. moderate growth yearly until the next Global Financial Crisis comes unexpectedly to reset the market again.

Knowledge of macroeconomy would help both investors and traders to see the bigger picture as the stock market (dog) would follow the economy (master) but may not be in a predictable way, sometimes could be ahead or behind the master. A smart investor needs to digest what is known and what is unknown but likely to happen in future (eg. black swan which may induce the global financial crisis), taking calculated risks with a portfolio of 10-20 global giant stocks.

Register Here (Dr Tee Free 4hr Stock Webinar): www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Macroeconomy, Market Cycle Investing, Stock Market Tagged: investment strategies, market cycle investing, market outlook

4 Seasons of Investing with Optimism Strategies

Posted on October 5, 2016 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

ein55-newsletter-no-042-image-4-seasons-tree

There are three schools of thought to achieve the best of both worlds in stock trading and investing. To bridge these three schools of thought, i.e. Fundamental Analysis (FA: business and economic performance), Technical Analysis (TA: price movement) and Personal Analysis (PA: emotional management), I have formulated the Optimism Strategies.

The essence of the optimism strategies is to identify fundamentally strong stocks, and buy/sell at a time aligned with technical analysis indicators, matching our personalities to take the right actions: Buy, Hold, Sell, Wait, Short.

It may seem hard to practise the above when pessimism is looming over the markets, but as investors, we all need a bit of optimism.

To make things simpler, I measure optimism on a 0 to 100% scale, where 0% stands for fearfulness or extreme pessimism, and 100% stands for greed or extreme optimism.

The general aim of investors is to find the best time for entry or exit by applying the Optimism Strategy at four different levels: Level 1 – individual stocks, Level 2 – sector/ industry, Level 3 – country/region, and Level 4 – world.

However, most undisciplined retail investors would simply follow the herd mentality—buying when everyone is buying and selling when everyone is selling. But again, these people usually end up buying high and selling low, and thus losing in investment.

Don’t be Thrown Off by the Word “Crisis”

I think a very important part of being optimistic is to not be afraid of crises, and not be distracted by “what everyone is saying”, because every crisis presents an opportunity.

If we were to observe how frequently crises occur, we will find that Level-1 crises happen almost all the time. Wind ups happen for weak companies when the earnings, assets, and/or cash flow are insufficient to pay for the debt. This could happen very unexpectedly; such was the case for Swiber.

Level-2 crises tend to follow the market cycle of the particular sector, for example oil & gas, casino, etc. But that also means that opportunities can be found every few months.

Level-3 crisis could happen every year, e.g. the US losing AAA credit rating (2011), China stock crisis (2015), Brexit crisis (2016), etc.

Level-4 crisis is even bigger in scale, but less frequent as well. Picture the Dotcom Bubble (2001) and Subprime Crisis (2008).

The above sound scary, don’t they? But I think that the greatest investment opportunities lie in the most fearful and most unexpected financial crises. This brings me to the next point.

The 4 Seasons of Investing

Of course, I don’t mean seasons in the literal sense, neither am I referring to the quarters in a year.

I use seasons as an analogy to describe market optimism. Winter is cold and seemingly lifeless, so I use it to represent a time/period when investors’ interest is very low (Optimism < 25%).

Summer, on the other hand, is hot and vibrant. I use it to represent a time when investors’ interest is high (Optimism > 75%).

Spring and autumn are seasons with milder climates, thus these two seasons refer to times when investors’ interest is average.

Needless to say, seasons come in cycles. Knowing that the market neither prospers nor stagnates forever, our aim is to enter investment in “winter” (when others are fearful), and exit in “summer” (when others are greedy).

Based on the concept of the four seasons, I have formulated a strategy to pick the optimum times of entering or exiting the market, as depicted in the diagram below:

ein55-newsletter-no-042-image-4-seasons-of-investing

If you are unsure about what this diagram means, I will be giving a more detailed breakdown of the approach investors can take in my free investment course.

If you’re interested to learn more, you may stay tune to my upcoming articles in this space or even attend a free investment course where I would explain the concepts more in-depth. During the free 3hr high-quality short course to the public, I will also share about 5 out of my 55 investment styles. Click on the button below to find out more about the latest upcoming workshop.

Filed Under: Market Cycle Investing, Market Optimism Tagged: 4 seasons of investing, market cycle investing, Optimism Strategies

Download Dr Tee Latest eBooks: Market Outlook 2023 & Dream Team Portfolio 2023

Stock Market Sentiment Investing Strategy with Fear and Greed of Black Swans (多数服从少数)

3 Golden Rules of Stock Investment (金玉良言)

4 Seasons of Investing with Optimism Strategies

2 Free eBooks by Dr Tee (Click to Download)