US Interest Rate Hike to 2.25%

US interest rate hikeUS consistently increases the interest rate, latest adjustment is to 2-2.25%. Despite the US and global economy are still bullish, this implies less time remaining for the bull market.

When US interest rate exceeds 3% and/or when 10 years US bond yield is over 4%, investor has to be very careful, especially over the next 12 months for possible black swan which could trigger the next major financial crisis.

It does not mean crisis will come immediately when interest rate is over 3%. It is based on probability approach. Despite higher interest rate now, since stock and property markets are still bullish in US, people are not concerned as they could use higher salary (employee market, currently 3.9% unemployment rate in US), higher profit from stocks/properties to pay for higher inflation or interest/mortgage rates.

A safer way is short term trading/investing, one could leverage on the last phase of bullish market (at least for US) and also prevent the big bear when trend is reversed. However, buy and sell in shorter term may not be suitable for everyone, especially in a volatile market (when VIX is over 20-30 points).

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Blessing in Disguise: US Interest Rate Hike

Ein55 Newsletter No 062 - 2017-03-14 - Interest Rate Hike

We could observe the emotions of market, how it affects the stocks in both ways. Last few years, when global economy was lagging, news of US interest rate hike is a negative factor. Now, interest rate hike becomes a neutral or even positive news as the market assumes it means the economy is strong, therefore stock market and other investment market (property, etc) will follow the uptrend.

Stock market is emotional, people interpret the market based on the mass market sentiment, following the herd mentality. If we are one of the herd, our investment performance could be average. If the market is a zero-sum game, who will pay for the people who are making money?  Unfortunately, some people need to lose money.

Ein55 Investment Style #22 (Blessing in Disguise) describes exactly the stock market and economy relationship in the last few years till now. When I taught this principle several years ago, some graduates may not fully understand why it is a blessing disguise until they observe the QE tapering about 2 years ago and then US interest rate hikes over the past few years. Ein55 Investment Styles will be appreciated more if we could relate to stock market behaviours. This is the reason of my sharing from time to time here.

I have also pointed in many earlier public workshops and investment eBook (Market Outlook) that both QE tapering and US interest rate hike would become blessings in disguise. However, this opportunity is more suitable for a trader to ride the uptrend and one must know when to get out from the uncontrolled roller coaster at new peak one day.

A blessing in disguise could become a real crisis when more people are optimistic.  Pay attention when US interest rate is over 2-3% range, a black swan may swim in quietly while others are celebrating for the bull.