Stock Market Archives - Page 19 of 29

Life Investment Lesson from Kampung Lorong Buangkok

Posted on April 1, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Life Lesson Beyond Investment from Kampung Lorong Buangkok

Life is not just making money, busy with work or investment, there is a higher level meaning for life.

Today, I have decided to take a break before the busy 6-day Ein55 investment class in April, trekking for 4km along the coast-to-coast trail from Punggol, passing by Kampung Lorong Buangkok, the last kampung or village in Singapore. I visited here with family about 10 years ago when children were still small, deciding to visit there again. I notice some changes around the Kampung (new constructions) but the 26 houses in the Kampung are frozen by time, little changes in my memory, as if going back to kampung time when I was small.

I saw a group of young children with teachers (see photo), listened to sharing by Head of Kampung (co-owner of land), Madam Sng. For younger generation born in city forest, many may not understand what is kampung, the slow pace of living at low cost of living which is rarely found.

I have a chance to chit chat with Madam Sng for about 1 hour to understand the changes in Kampung so far. There are 26 household and 1 mosque in the kampung, some have been staying 3-4 generations there, only paying rental of about $5 to $10 per month (not a typo, if you compare with a few thousands per month of rental for 1 house outside the kampung in Singapore).

I knew about the story of Madam Sng family many years ago, her father bought the land in 1956, after passed away about 20 years ago, leaving the kampung to 4 children (the youngest child, Madam Sng still stays there to manage the kampung). No matter how much is the offer by property developers (last reported “valuation” in 2007 was $33 millions, now could be higher), Sng family refuses to sell, main reason is they want to preserve the spirit of kampung, a valuable heritage for family or even entire nation, something could not be exchanged with money.

The Sng family has kind hearts, helping many other poor families for the past 60 years. Some people may think they are fool for not selling the golden asset of land as sometimes we even see cases of some families in Singapore, children going to court to fight for houses left by parents. Heaven loves “fool” with kind heart (remember the story of Forrest Gump?), rewarding higher return through tremendous hidden capital gains of land prices in Singapore. Assuming a moderate return of 10% CAGR (compounding return) for land price in Singapore, over the past 60 years, it has gone up by 300 times in prices naturally. Even the passive incomes from rental is minimal (artificially suppressed 1000 times lower by the Sng family to help the 26 families in Kampung), Sng family is protected by the natural growth rate of land, which is a default giant for investment.

Some may be envy of the tremendous “investment return” of Sng family, do not know that money is considered secondary for them, generations of families links in the kampung with memory of their parents are more important. I am hoping the Kampung Lorong Buangkok could be there as long as possible (not giving way to future development in Singapore), this is an important life lesson for everyone that money is not everything but when one does the right thing, money would come naturally.

The story of Kampung Lorong Buangkok may not be repeated in future as it is almost impossible for an ordinary investors to buy a land at sky high price in Singapore, holding for generations to preserve the value. However, it is still possible to have similar success through stock investment, one could buy stocks with strong fundamental business or undervalue land, best at low market price if mastering the clock to buy during global financial crisis, then possible to hold for generations, long term return could be comparable with Kampung Lorong Buangkok.

You may learn how to do long term investing through stocks with low capital from Dr Tee free 4 hours investment course. A few examples of long term investing stocks with over 10 times potential in future share prices will be shared.

Remember, money is not almighty but one may not live without it outside Kampung Lorong Buangkok. We do not need to work so hard in active jobs to earn from fixed salary which may be uncertain, better to couple with smart investment through stocks to generate passive incomes and capital gains. We just need more than enough money for life, when financial-freedom is achieved, we can find back the genuine love for life, not for money.

Dr Tee Investment Course (Stock, Property, Commodity, Forex, Bond)

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Property Market, Stock Market

First Reit Crisis with Lippo Group Analysis

Posted on March 27, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Ein55 coaching students just review First Reit (SGX: AW9U), a giant dividend stock in Singapore, which mainly collecting rental income through Reits to Siloam Hospitals (owned by same sponsor of First Reit, Lippo Karawaci Group) in Indonesia with triple-net lease without forex risk (pegged at fixed rate to SGD).

However, investing analysis in stock is never on just 1 business, one has to also consider related parties, eg. sponsor of First Reit, Lippo Karawaci (contributed to over 80% of rental income for First Reit), which has a poor credit rating of CCC+, mainly due to long term negative operating cashflow for many years, which expanding in a mega property project aggressively.

Despite strong fundamentals of First Reit, the fear on Lippo Group has corrected First Reit share price from about $1.50/share to $1/share over the past 1 year, dividend yield has climbed up to an impressive 8.7%, comparable to year 2008 during the last global financial crisis.

Ideally, one should buy dividend giant stocks during a crisis to get lower price with stable growing dividend to maximize the dividend yield for long term investing. However, there are different qualities of crisis stocks. Price correction during Level 4 crisis (global financial crisis) is the highest quality if the business remains intact. For the current situation, First Reit is only under Level 2 crisis (despite strong fundamental of First Reit at Level 1, price falls due to fear of deteriorating fundamental of sponsor, Lippo Group), therefore an average quality of low optimism stock.

OUE of Lippo Group is now the second sponsor of First Reit, creating new variable to future of First Reit on dividend growth as the new Reit component may come from Singapore property of OUE (worst if priced at higher level) which may not have the unfair advantages Siloams Hospitals with triple-net lease, fixed forex rate (highly subsidized by sponsor) with high growth of health care industry in Indonesia. However, the change will not be overnight as average lease expiry is about 8-9 years.

For investor who could take calculated risks (in the same boat as Lippo Group and Riady family, waiting for the revival of mega city project), First Reit may be considered for dividend investing but technical analysis should be considered (eg. investing above $1/share which is a critical support, avoiding possible risk of buy low get lower in prices with more future uncertainties) with risk management through diversification over 10 giant stocks. Alternatively, one has the choice of not to invest in average quality low-optimism dividend stock, there are still other better opportunities which are relatively safer.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr course on how to investing in global giant stocks (dividend investing, crisis investing, momentum trading, etc), understanding the risks and opportunities of current stock markets in Singapore, US, Hong Kong and China.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: first reit, reit

Bond Market Danger Signal for Global Financial Crisis

Posted on March 26, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Gap between global short term bond yield (eg. 3 months or 2 years) and long term bond yield (eg. 10 years) is approaching zero or negative.

See chart of (10 yr vs 2 yr) and (10 yr vs 3 months) bond yields gap, historically after 1-2 years when this signal is triggered, global financial crisis would follow after a very bullish stock market. Will the same pattern be repeated this time as last few market cycles, eg dotcom bubble after year 2000, subprime crisis after year 2007?

Bond price and bond yield move in opposite direction because Bond Yield = Bond Interest / Bond Price. Bond yield is the % return from the bond market.

There are 2 general trends which cause the abnormality in global bond market now with short term bond yield closes to or more than long term bond yield:

1) More people buying long term bond (eg. long term investors who worry about stock market may crash), therefore long term bond price goes up, long term bond yield starts to drop (eg 10 years US bond yield drops from over 3% last year to about 2.45% in Mar 2019).

2) More people selling short term bond (short term fund is transferred from low-return short term bond to other more attractive opportunities, eg short term trading in bullish short term stock market or even deposit cash in bank with rising interest rate which competes with bond market), therefore short term bond short term bond yield has been going up (bond price drops) consistently, especially since year 2015 till now when US starts to increase the interest rate regularly.

Initially, long term bond yield was uptrend together with stock market but with falling of global stock market from level 3-4 high optimism (>75%) last year, long term bond yield has starts to drop from the last peak of over 3%, gap between long term bond yield (eg 10 years) and short term bond yield (eg. 3 months or 2 years) is getting narrower or even reversed (short term bond yield has higher return than long term bond yield) which is abnormal.

This is a danger signal but may not be immediate crash for global stock market. Historically, bullish stock market could still run for 1-2 more years after this abnormal bond market signal is observed. Investors need to pay attention to trend of short term bond yield (eg. 3 months), when it starts to fall down together with long term bond yield from a peak, this will show great fear in global stock market. Currently, short term bond yield still go up (bond price drops) under the momentum, this trend may be stopped or even reversed when US has stopped increasing the interest rate or start to cut down interest rate (signal of weaker economy), then bear market would come again.

Are you worried of the global bond market which may affect the global stock market with the next global financial crisis? As a stock investor/trader, one may position using 2 different unique strategies:

1) Investor – hold (for stocks bought at low last time) and prepare to sell stocks at high by riding the short term bullish stock market.

2) Trader – Buy High Sell Higher if the strong momentum in short term stock market could continue over the next 1-2 years.

Learn from Dr Tee free 4hr stock investment course to learn to grab the golden opportunities to profit from both immediate short term bullish stock market (as a trader) and also next future from global financial crisis (as an investor). 10 secrets of trading and investing will be shared.

Filed Under: Bond Market, Stock Market Tagged: global financial crisis

Acquisition of Dividend Giant Stock: Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573)

Posted on March 22, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Based on Ein55 Giant Detector, out of about 800 stocks, there are only 6 dividend giant stocks in Singapore. Unfortunately, 1 of the dividend giant stocks, Challenger Technologies (SGX: 573), is being acquired recently, will be delisted from Singapore stock market.

Challenger Technologies is not a REIT nor blue chip stock, but it has strong earning growth with stable positive operating cashflow, able to pay consistent dividend each year (more than 5% dividend yield) over the past 10 years. Due to weak stock market sentiment, Challenger Technologies has been trading at low Optimism level (<25%) over the past 2 years, providing a golden opportunity for major shareholder (Loo family in partnership with Digileap Capital) to acquire at low price of $0.56/share, which is a premium of about 20% compared with average low optimism price of $0.48/share (when homework on Challenger Technologies was assigned to Ein55 coaching class in Feb 2017) over the past 2 years. The timing of acquisition is ideal as Challenger Technologies has low trading volume with little public float, even with offer price of $0.56/share, it is still consider undervalue.

Over the past 10 years, Challenger Technologies has grown more than 5 times in share prices (from initial low of $0.10/share to more than $0.50/share), an ideal growth stock for buy and hold for tremendous capital gains, as well as collecting more than 5% dividend yield yearly as bonus (13% dividend yield if bought in year 2008 during global financial crisis). Most investors may position dividend as the No 1 objective for dividend stock investing. In fact, the hidden treasure of dividend stock is with the enormous capital gains (rise in share prices over the years) as other investors have to pay higher prices each year to exchange for this money-making machine which pay $5 for every $100 investment. Challenger Technologies is an excellent example of dividend giant stock which is suitable for both passive income and also capital gains.

Investors have been given at least 2 years to consider Challenger Technologies but the response has been weak, partly because the stock is not a typical trading stock with high volatility. In total, there are 86 giant dividend stocks in the world major stock markets. After delisting of Challenger Technologies, there are still another 5 dividend giant stocks from Singapore waiting for us, do not miss these limited opportunities, especially when they are trading at low optimism price with high dividend yield (>10%) one day during the global financial crisis while business is still strong to make money consistently each year.

Interested readers may sign up for free 4hr stock investment course by Dr Tee to learn the right way of dividend stock investing, as well as timing for entry and exit, through 10 personalized investing strategies. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z

Investing Strategy in Monopoly Stock Exchange – SGX Stock (S68)

Posted on March 14, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Stock exchange is a monopoly business, sponsor usually is by the government of entire country because stock market is an engine to provide capital for growth in business (Level 1 – individual company) and economy (Level 3 – country). At the same time, stock exchange usually is a profitable business for major economy, growth depends on trading volume of stocks and other derivatives, number of stocks listed and new IPO yearly, etc. Let’s learn the monopoly stock strategies (Optimism with FA + TA + PA) to profit from global stock exchange stock, using SGX stock (S68) as an example:

1) Personal Analysis (PA)
SGX has strong sponsor of Singapore government which is AAA credit rating. Not all the monopoly stocks are good choices for investing, especially for declining industry. SGX is a reflection of Singapore economy through stock market, a growing financial industry. Liquidity is a major constraint for SGX, therefore SGX has to collaborate with regional stock exchanges to promote flowing of investing funds globally.

2) Fundamental Analysis (FA)
Buy a stock means one is in partnership with someone doing business together. It is meaningless to buy cheap (common mistake for a beginner investor) for a stock if one does not know the value in business. SGX stock has over 30% ROE for the past 13 years, a strong growing company with stable positive operating cashflow generated each year. It is also a stable income generator (due to stable positive free cashflow) with yearly dividend yield of about 3-4% for the past 10 years (except for 7.5% dividend in year 2008 during subprime crisis due to drop in share prices with stable dividend).

3) Technical Analysis (TA)
SGX stock has been oscillating +/-30% between a tight price range of $6+ to $8+ for the past 10 years (correlating well with stable STI within 3000 +/- 300 points), a simple investing + trading strategy could be buying SGX share just above $7 while it is uptrend, shorting just below $8 while it is downtrend, collecting about 3-4% dividend along the way during the holding period (as if a fixed deposit in stock market with 3-4% “interest” if one ignore the little movement of share prices, double of 1-2% bank interest rates over the past 10 years).

SGX is a monopoly stock with strong fundamental (FA), protected indirectly by trusted sponsor, the Singapore government (PA), therefore a giant stock. A trader could simply apply optimism & TA to buy low sell high while it is moving in a cyclic way.

4) Optimism Analysis
Long-term Optimism of SGX stock is about 10% currently, considering an investing opportunity to invest at low optimism <25%. However, there are different qualities of low optimism or “crisis” stocks (price is much less than value), SGX low optimism at Level 1 (company) is not aligned with optimism at Level 2 (Financial Sector), Level 3 (country level, STI which is at mid optimism level of about 45%) or Level 4 (world level which is about 70% optimism for global stocks). Therefore, SGX is more suitable for swing trading (within $7-$8 share price range) in short term and/or dividend investing in medium term (collect 3-4% dividend yearly), instead of investing for long term (a global financial crisis is required to correct the share prices, only then one could invest to buy low and hold long term).
Interested readers may study other global stock exchanges, selecting a suitable one for possible investment, ideally aligning with Levels 1-4 crisis to buy low. FA performance and credit rating of sponsor (respective country) for different exchange could vary, do your own studies to compare with global stock exchanges, eg. Bursa, HKEx, etc.

There are other much better global monopoly stocks in the world, especially in private sectors which can have control over the prices of products or services to generate enormous profits. Another close example is ICBC (HKEx: 1398), world largest bank, a cyclic trading stock protected by FA & PA, similar strategy as SGX may be applied.

Interested readers may learn from 4hr free stock investment course by Dr Tee to learn the complete 10 strategies, including discussion of many local and global giant blue chip stocks with potential. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Stock Market, Stocks A-Z, Uncategorized

Best World Stock – To Invest or to Trade?

Posted on February 27, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Before Best World stock announces FY 2018 results, Ein55 students could project this positive results many months in advance as the company hassustainable growing business. So, Best World management is smart to announce the corporate news (reply to Business Times) before good 2018 corporate results. When the fear is gone, as long as global stock market is strong, Best World stock has chance to recover again above $3/share as most people are greed & fear driven in stock market.

Valuation of Best World stock is not so much based on asset approach (unlike property or bank stocks), it is more on future earning capability, as well as 10X market potential in China. Currently both China and Taiwan markets contribute to bulk of earning.

Best World stock has recovered in share prices back to above critical support of $2.70, to the level before the trading halt. Temporary, the Level 1 (company) crisis is relieved unless the Business Times could find more negative points.

The main question mark on Best World may be still the “secret” of business model driving the sales, how it could make money in a sustainable way. Although investors may not have full info on direct customers (final users of beauty products), Best World management might know the estimated numbers or trends which could be a trade secret from competitors.

In this beauty industry, Ein55 coaching homework (see sample attached) shows that Best World has the highest profit margin but share price growth is much faster than the earning growth. If one could trust the auditor E&Y, this is a strong growth stock but at speculated high prices (more than 10 times growth in share prices over the past few years).

In conclusion, Best World may be more suitable for trading, not for investing as the stock is at high optimism. When price is recovering well, it could be a momentum stock as well, one could buy high sell higher. When price momentum is lost or there is a higher level (L3 country or L4 world) crisis, one may need to exit as a trader as well.

Global stock market has turned bullish over the past few months. Readers may learn from Dr Tee free 4hr stock investment course to learn various global giant stocks for long term investing or short term momentum trading. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market, Stocks A-Z

Key Learning Summary of Ein55 Business Analysis Course: Business Valuation

Posted on February 17, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Ein55 Business Analysis Course - Business Valuation

The Ein55 students have learned the details of Business Analysis Course #2 (Business Valuation) from Ein55 Mentor Kean Lim, understanding how to evaluate values of a company with stock, as well as avoiding accounting traps. Here is the key summary:

1) Check what is the Auditor’s Opinion

– Unqualified / Qualified / Adverse / Unable to give an opinion (Disclaimer)

2) Know why ROE is rising or falling, high or low

– Net profit margin, Asset turnover, Financial leverage

3) Check whether a company uses Aggressive Accounting

– Aggressive revenue recognition

– Days Sales Outstanding

– Days Inventory

– Large changes in operating expenses

– Over-dependence on acquisition

– Quality of earnings

4) Derive the intrinsic values based on

– asset value

– earning value

– growth value

5) Combine various valuation methods with Optimism Strategies

– buy at price below the value, selling at price above the value.

6) Investor can purchase the best stock in the world, but if one buys it at a high premium, it can be a bad investment.

– Valuation is important and is a huge part of the game.

Investing in a company is akin to being in partnership with its business. It is therefore crucial for investors to possess the ability to analyse and make sense of the businesses of interest. The beauty of investment is that one can be selective to only invest in businesses that are profitable and therefore can bring about considerable capital gains in future.

Dr Tee provides free high-quality investment education regularly to the general public, including Business Analysis (BA), Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA), Optimism Analysis (OA) and Personal Analysis (PA). The knowledge could help a person for a lifetime, after mastering the right skills of stock investment. Register Here.

Filed Under: Fundamental Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: Business Analysis Course

How to Buy Stock as If Driving Investment Car?

Posted on January 23, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Stock trading is similar to driving a car. The driver should have obtained a license to drive. An experienced driver could drive safely even using one eye or one hand holding the steering wheel. If the car is given to a 8 years old kid, this could be a disaster. Similarly, a stock trader should master the skill to trade, a licence to drive the investment car. A beginner who starts stock trading or investing without proper knowledge is considered risky while an experienced investor is used to the thunderstorms (financial crisis) in stock market, knowing when to slowdown or speed up.

The driving skill would give the driver a good start but it could not guarantee safety all the time as car condition could be different. A strong car is similar to strong fundamental stock, even when there is an unexpected accident (financial crisis), it could protect the driver (investor). In the world of stock market, an investor could even diversify the risks with 10 stocks, as if having 10 different cars driving at the same time, even when one breaks down, there are other 9 other choices to move on, journey of financial freedom is not affected.

For additional safety, besides wearing safety belt, a driver could buy comprehensive insurance coverage to protect against unforeseen accidents. Similarly, an investor could consider low-debt strong cash company for investment as safety belt, following price trend with breakout for confirmation as premium for insurance.

Some drivers (traders) like a fast Ferrari (short term trading) while others prefer slower antique car (long term investing), there is no right or wrong in the choice. Each driver has to operate the car within safety margin under own’s control. Beyond the limitation, accident could happen which is beyond driver’s tolerance level. Similarly, a stock trader or investor has to know the risk tolerance level and reward expectation. Alignment of personality with own investment strategy is the key for success. A good driver would find own’s favorite car which matching own needs: price, color, speed, functions, etc.

So, have you found your desired car (stocks) for investment? Learn from Dr Tee through 4hr free high-quality stock investment course to learn how to form a strong investment portfolio with 10 dream team stocks globally. You will master What To Buy, When to Buy/Sell through Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA), Personal Analysis (PA), integrated with Optimism Strategies. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Personal Analysis, Stock Market Tagged: investment car

Cigarette Stock – Unhealthy Business for Investment

Posted on January 13, 2019 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

With increasing health conscious and anti-smoking campaigns since young, tobacco / cigarette companies may not have bright future for investing. Percentage of smokers in populations of most countries (including US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, etc) are declining over the past decade with higher taxes (expenses) by local government, resulting in lower earning of tobacco / cigarette companies, therefore weaker share prices.

Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), owner of Marlboro Cigarette, is a crisis giant stock at low optimism (<25%), a low quality investing opportunity induced by declining earning over the past 5 years. Parent company of Philip Morris is Altria Group (NYSE: MO), also a crisis giant stock at low optimism but having much stronger fundamental, therefore a better choice for cigarette stock investing.

British American Tobacco (Bursa: 4261), owner of Lucky Strike cigarette, was a value investing stock in the past but with declining business and share prices, it may not be not suitable for long term investing again despite a low optimism share price.

“Buy Low Sell High” is an universal secret of making money in stocks, main condition is the business has to be strong and sustainable, then each price correction is an opportunity to buy at discounted price. However, “Buy Low” may “Get Lower”, “Buy Cheap” may “Go Bankrupt”, if buying crisis stock with high debt, declining business (earning, cash flow, asset values, etc). So, do not fall into value trap by blindly “Buy Low”. Integration with Fundamental Analysis (FA) is required.

Buy a stock implies being a business partner. If uncomfortable in supporting “unhealthy” businesses (eg. tobacco, gambling, alcoholic drinks, etc), there are many other healthy businesses (eg. healthcare / hospital stocks) for stock investment.

Learn from Dr Tee in free 4hr stock investment course for public on various healthy businesses of giant stocks. Register Here: www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Market Optimism, Stock Market Tagged: cigarette stock

Red River for Global Stock Market (满江红)

Posted on November 20, 2018 Written by Dr Tee (Ein55)

Red River for Global Stock Market
Bearish stock market today with all major stock markets in red. As mentioned before, when short term trends are bearish in global stock market, probability is higher for the share prices to go down further.

The main worry now, even US S&P 500 is below 2700 points, if falling further to below 2600 points, then it will follow the short term bearish trend of global stock market, then the risk of global financial crisis will be greater, unless US-China trade war could see light at the end of tunnel.

Based on Trump’s strong actions so far, the deadlock likely will continue until year 2020, second term of US presidential election. The House of Congress dominated by Democrats may also create new variables such as investigation of Trump or slowdown his future actions.

Market fear could be contagious, if US (contributes to about 50% of world stock value) stock market is also falling down, even strong fundamental stocks could have capital loss in stock market.

Take actions now:
1) If you have stocks, do Spring Cleaning (what to hold or sell)
2) If you don’t have stocks, aim for Dream Team stocks (what to buy, when to buy)

Spring Cleaning could be painful for some people. Ideally, cut loss should be integrated into earlier strategy when price drops by 10%. If the price drops more than 20% or even 50%, most people would simply ignore the losses, changing from a short term trader to a “long term investor” to hold on to paper loss.

Spring Cleaning does not mean it is a sell. It could be a hold. In general, perform spring cleaning this way:

1) Strong Fundamental Stocks vs Weak Fundamental Stocks
– Keep Strong One, Sell Weak One

2) If Strong Fundamental: Cyclic vs Growth Stock
– For Cyclic stocks (eg. banking finance, property, technology sector, airline), even if fundamental is good, if trend is down, need to consider to sell first, one could buy back in future.

For growth stocks, it is possible to hold with condition that the entry price last time was a low optimism price, otherwise it could still be a loss by now as entry / buying price is too high.

You may learn 10 strategies (Optimism + FA + TA + PA) to make money in stocks with Market Outlook 2019 from Dr Tee free monthly workshop, register in www.ein55.com

Filed Under: Stock Market Tagged: red river

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